Coronavirus COVID-19 in the US


‘People Are Dying’: Battling Coronavirus Inside a N.Y.C. Hospital | NYT News

The New York Times 26March2020
“Young people are dying”

 

Scenes of “catastrophe” as New York hospitals battle coronavirus

CBS This Morning 27March2020
“Staff are Dying”

Scale of New York’s coronavirus devastation ‘difficult’ for outsiders to understand

Sky News Australia 18April2020

The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic is “very difficult for people to understand if they’ve not seen it,” especially in densely populated places like New York, according to physician Dr Qanta Ahmed.

The deathtoll from the novel coronavirus has risen above 13,000 in New York, even though the fatality rates have begun to plateau according to the state’s governor Andrew Cuomo.

Ms Ahmed told Sky News host Rowan Dean “we are seeing that this disease ravages people who are normally of very good constitutional health” and did not have pre-existing heart conditions or diabetes which makes people more vulnerable to the virus.

The former sleep disorder specialist said her hospital on Long Island was four times its normal capacity with infected patients and there are “more critically ill people on respirators than the entire state of Israel, so the scale is incomprehensible even to those of us who are normally there”.

Obesity and the population density have also been proven as major contributors in the spread of the virus.

With 42 per cent of the population classified as obese, “I am very fearful for the progress of the coronavirus pandemic here in the US,” she said.

Total Confirmed deaths covid-19 March2020 - 22April2020 by Country https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?year=2020-04-12&time=2020-03-01..&country=BRA+FRA+DEU+IND+ITA+KOR+ESP+TUR+GBR+USA

Total Confirmed deaths covid-19 March2020 – 22April2020 by Country https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?year=2020-04-12&time=2020-03-01..&country=BRA+FRA+DEU+IND+ITA+KOR+ESP+TUR+GBR+USA

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people Jan-Apr 2020 country=ISR+BEL+GBR+USA+CHE+SWE+IRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&year=2020-05-06&time=2020-01-15..&country=BEL+IRL+ISR+SWE+CHE+GBR+USA

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people Jan-Apr 2020 country=ISR+BEL+GBR+USA+CHE+SWE+IRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&year=2020-05-06&time=2020-01-15..&country=BEL+IRL+ISR+SWE+CHE+GBR+USA

Arutz Sheva http://www.israelnationalnews.com/

Flying from NY to Israel during coronavirus

Photographer Shahar Azran decided to fly from NY to Israel. How was the process? How is isolation maintained? What are feelings in NY?

Yoni Kempinski, 28May2020 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/281008

Photographer Shahar Azran flew from NY to Israel

Arutz Sheva TV 27May2020

Arutz Sheva spoke to photographer Shahar Azran, who recently flew to Israel from New York amid coronavirus restrictions.

He described the procedure of the flight, how he maintains social distancing now that he is in Israel, and the atmosphere in New York amid the outbreak of the virus.

“The city is empty,” he said. “I can’t imagine people going back to the theater in the next 6 months […] We have no idea what’s going to happen. I think New York will be affected more than any other place in the US.”

He also predicted that the coronavirus will lead to greater amounts of people moving to Israel.

He said that, between the way Israel is perceived as dealing with the crisis and the health insurance issues in the US, “I think more people will think about Aliyah, and it’s a great opportunity for Israel to invest in those great people.

“Many people want to move to Israel, now we have to give them a greater inventive to come.”

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Symptoms: COVID-19 vs. Cold or Flu | Do you have a Fever and a Dry Cough?

Symptoms: COVID-19 vs. Cold or Flu https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/

Symptoms: COVID-19 vs. Cold or Flu https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/

Aditional Symptoms: Loss of smell Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID
From Dr. John Campbell May 19, 2020 Brazil, US, UK (https://youtu.be/4URofJ86U54)
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/check-if-you-have-coronavirus-symptoms/
high temperature – this means you feel hot to touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature)
new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)
loss or change to your sense of smell or taste – this means you’ve noticed you cannot smell or taste anything, or things smell or taste different to normal

Caronavirus remains in the throat for 4 days

These are not the Symptoms of Coronavirus COVID-19: If you have these Symptoms It is time to get off your Apple iPhone or other Smartphone and go to bed.

Smartphone Zombies

Smartphone Zombies

Approved by the World Health Organization from China: Coronavirus Quick Test | Chinese Fortune Cookie

Approved by the World Health Organization from China: Coronavirus Quick Test | Chinese Fortune Cookie

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Take Vitamin D and Zinc to prevent Death

Quite Compelling Evidence

Dr. John Campbell 13May2020
Does Vitamin D Protect Against COVID-19? https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152?src=soc_tw_share
So the evidence is becoming quite compelling.
JoAnn E. Manson, Professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School Division of Preventive Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, in Boston, Massachusetts.
Already known about Vit D status Bone health, Cardiometabolic health. But it may be even more important now than ever Risk of developing COVID-19 infection and to the severity of the disease. Innate immunity and boosts immune function against viral diseases
Immune-modulating effect
Can lower inflammation
This may be relevant to the respiratory response with COVID – 19 and the cytokine storm.
Laboratory (cell-culture) studies Evidence that patients with respiratory infections tend to have lower blood levels of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D
Some evidence from COVID-19 patients as well.
Eightfold higher risk of having severe COVID illness among those who entered with vitamin D deficiency compared with those who had sufficient vitamin D levels
Supplementation was associated with a significant reduction in respiratory tract infections
12% to 70% reduction of respiratory infection with vitamin D supplementation
So the evidence is becoming quite compelling
Encourage our patients to be outdoors and physically active, while maintaining social distancing

  • Diet
  • food labels
  • fortified dairy products
  • fortified cereals
  • fatty fish
  • sun dried mushrooms
  • Quite reasonable to consider a vitamin D supplement RDA, 600-800 IU/dailyBut during this period, a multivitamin or supplement containing 1000-2000 IU/daily of vitamin D would be reasonable

Planning a randomized clinical trial, moderate to high doses In the meantime,
it’s important to encourage measures that will, on a population-wide basis, reduce the risk for vitamin D deficiency
Dr JoAnn Manson is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School; and chief of the Division of Preventive Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, in Boston, Massachusetts.

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It is time to start wearing a Mask for the protection of others.

How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus? (featuring Minister of Health of the Czech Rep.) #Masks4All

Petr Ludwig / Konec prokrastinace [CZE] 28March2020

This is the strongest statistical association I've seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent.

Here is the science behind the recommendation to wear a mask.

From: JAMA Insights
March 26, 2020 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852
Bourouiba L. Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19. JAMA. Published online March 26, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.4756
Lydia Bourouiba, PhD
Click to download PDF file Click to download the report jama_bourouiba_2020_it_200011

To mask or not to mask

Dr. John Campbell 07April2020

Arutz Sheva http://www.israelnationalnews.com/

Everyone must wear a mask to protect against coronavirus. But which kind?

Dr. Ben Fox speaks with Arutz Sheva, explaining which kinds of masks are most effective and which should be avoided – and how to wear them.

Yoni Kempinski , 08May2020 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/279895

You must wear a mask. But which kind? Dr. Ben Fox answers

Arutz Sheva TV 07May2020

Arutz Sheva spoke with Dr. Ben Fox of the Assaf Harofeh-Shamir Medical Center, about the requirement to wear masks in public.

“There are two reasons to wear a mask,” Dr. Fox explained. “The first reason is to protect ourselves: If somebody coughs, these droplets are coming towards me, if they get into my nose, I’m probably going to get sick with corona. The other reason is to stop me from infecting other people. Now obviously if we’re sick we shouldn’t be going out at all. But we know unfortunately that there’s quite a large number of people who pick up coronavirus, they’re walking around, they don’t know they’ve got it, and innocently spreading it around. And again, that’s a place where wearing a mask can be really effective at stopping the spread in the community.”

The next question, he said, is what kind of masks people should wear, explaining that there are N95s, for healthcare workers, regular surgical masks, and a variety of homemade fabric masks.

Calling the fabric mask market a “wild west,” Dr. Fox held up a disposable surgical mask explaining that “I think these are the way to go.”

“The problem with the fabric masks is that we don’t really know – there haven’t been clear instructions from the Health Ministry on how to make them… There’s thousands of different kinds of fabric, different fabrics have different size holes in them between the fibers, we don’t how many layers of fabric, and we don’t have clear instructions how many masks we need per person and how we need to be cleaning these masks, washing them in the washing machine, at what temperature, do we need to add a capful of bleach each time, just to sterilize – we don’t know. We don’t know.”

Dr. Fox also cited a Chinese paper which noted that during the first SARS epidemic those medical professionals “with high exposure” to the “previous coronavirus” who wore fabric masks were sick “with flu-like symptoms” 13 times more often than those who wore surgical masks.

He also noted several possible explanations for the increase, such as touching the face more often, not washing the masks properly or frequently enough, or being involved in more risky activities, and said that there is no proof that the symptoms were in fact SARS. However, he said, “there’s very strong circumstantial evidence that a fabric mask, if you’re not really taking care of it properly, might increase the risk to ourselves.”

Meanwhile, Israel’s Health Ministry issued guidelines for the use of masks, including how to make homemade masks. These guidelines, published on the Health Ministry site, state:

Types of masks suitable for the general population include:

1. Surgeon’s masks – the standard required by hospitals and clinics and are also suitable for the general population

2. Non-medical oral-nasal masks – provides protection, but the degree of protection depends on the mask

3. Multi-layered cloth masks – can provide very good protection, depending on the type of fabric, its thickness, and the number of layers.

The N95 masks protects from transmission as well, but is not required, except when treating severely ill patients in hospitals undergoing respiratory procedures.

Masks with valves – not suitable in the community because the valve emits air with pressure that can cause spraying of droplets and therefor transmission.

Homemade masks:

In the absence of a medical or commercial mask, it is possible to make an oral-nasal improvised mask or make a multi-folded fabric mask with excellent filtering capacity. The mask should be made from two or three layers according to the thickness and quality of the fabric.

To make a fabric mask, it is recommended to choose woven (non-stretch) cotton fabric as tightly woven as possible (density over 200 threads per inch such as a satin or percale fabric) and fold it into 3 layers (or 500 threads per inch at 2 folds). The fabric should be suitable for washing at 70 degrees Celsius so that it may be reused.

The mask must cover the mouth and nose (possible dimensions are a rectangular mask of 14X18 cm). The mask must be sewn on all sides. Rubber bands can be used instead of laces to tighten the mask behind the ears or on the neck.

It is preferable to make several masks for each person, so that they can be changed whenever the mask is wet, dirty, or overused. The used mask should be kept in a clean plastic bag.

The makeshift masks should be washed at a temperature of over 70 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes or more, and may be dried in the sun or a dryer.

The guidelines also urge Israelis to wash their hands after touching a used mask of any type.

How to make your own coronavirus protective mask: step-by-step instructions

How to Make a Face Mask

JOANN Fabric and Craft Stores 20March2020

Health ministry issues video explaining how to make homemade masks

A new video issued by the Health Ministry explains how the public can make simple masks at home in order to comply with the latest regulations, which require everyone to wear masks when venturing outside.

The video is in Hebrew, but can probably be understood well enough even without a strong grasp of the language. [See the video below]

חבישת מסיכה מקטינה את סיכויי ההדבקה כאשר נמצאים במרחב הציבורי – כך תוכלו להכין מסיכה משלכם מבדים April 1,2020
חבישת מסיכה מקטינה את סיכויי ההדבקה כאשר נמצאים במרחב הציבורי – כך תוכלו להכין מסיכה משלכם מבדים

איך מכינים מסיכה ביתית ללא תפירה?


Shenkar Art. Design. Engineering •Apr 12, 2020
את הגיזרה למסכה ניתן להוריד מכאן: https://bit.ly/2JV7m5r הסרטון הוכן במסגרת פעילות קבוצתית בנושא צמצום הדבקה בנגיף הקורונה. בקבוצה חברים מטעם מפא״ת, האוניברסיטה העברית, מכון ויצמן, המרכז הבינתחומי הרצליה ומכון סירטקס בשנקר.
The mask for the mask can be downloaded from here: https://bit.ly/2JV7m5r

The video was prepared as part of a group activity to reduce the infection of the corona virus. Members of the MAPA, the Hebrew University, the Weizmann Institute, the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center and the Sirtax Institute in Shenkar
Click to download PDF file Click to download the .pdf version גזרה למסכה ללא תפירה

Study on the efficacy of masks and various materials in filtration:

Filtration Efficiency and Pressure Drop Across Materials Tested with Aerosols of Bacillus atrophaeus and Bacteriophage MS2 (30 L/min) a

Filtration Efficiency and Pressure Drop Across Materials Tested with Aerosols of Bacillus atrophaeus and Bacteriophage MS2 (30 L/min) a

Daily Halachic Corner – Sefirat HaOmer! – 113 – The Corona Virus – 20 – Rav Dayan Elgrod!

Breslev English 20April2020

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https://www.jewishpress.com

Rav Elyashiv, the Vilna Gaon’s Lottery and Coronavirus

By Josh Wander 4 Nisan 5780 – 29March2020 https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel/aliyah-israel/rav-elyashiv-the-vilna-gaons-lottery-and-coronavirus/2020/03/29/

גורל הגרא על נגיף הקורונה הרב בנימין אלישיב

myinternetfavs 25March2020

There is a ancient Jewish tradition, that in more modern times is attributed to the Vilna Gaon, called the “Goral HaGra”.

It is a lottery which is done at times of extreme need. When divine assistance in required to answer a question of national significance. Great rabbis have passed down this tradition, which allows for a query to be made via a specific protocol and then a Chumash is opened to a random page and a Pasuk is pointed to. This verse is understood to be the answer to the query that was posed.



It was used during the Holocaust to determine in which direction the Mir Yeshiva should escape to (eventually leading them to Shanghai) and again by Rav Aryeh Levin z”l to identify the remains of the mass grave of Jews killed in the Old City of Jerusalem during the War of Independence.

There are very few rabbis alive today who are knowledgeable and qualified to conduct this ceremony. But it was performed this past week in Jerusalem by none other than Rav Aryeh Levin’s grandson and son of the famous Posek, Rav Binyamin Elyashiv Shlit”a.

Rav Binyamin Elyashiv is recognized as one of the poskim, leading Halachic deciders, in the Haredi community in Israel today.

Rav Elyashiv was asked by a American Jewish supporter of Torah institutions how they should be responding to the CoronaVirus in this time of crisis and whether they should relocate to Israel. The response received by the divine lottery was nothing less than miraculous.

The verse that was chosen came from Deuteronomy 1:8, where it states, “See, I have set the land before you; come and possess the land which the Lord swore to your forefathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to give them and their descendants after them.

This led the holy rabbi to explain to his grandson that this is a revelation and a clear sign that it is time for world Jewry to make their way back to the Land of Israel. “Israel is the safest place for a Jew to be now,” the rabbi said, “We are very close to the final redemption. It will all be over very soon here.”

He also said that those who are left outside of the Land, but continue to support her, will also be recognized as being native to the land.



JerusalemCats Comments: For All those that state “I will make Aliyah when Moshiach comes” Well

Rav Zissholtz: 2 Geula Statements Heard Recently

29March2020 http://yeranenyaakov.blogspot.com/2020/03/rav-zissholtz-2-geula-statements-heard.html

(h/t Sod1820)

Rav Zissholtz on Radio 2000 said the following (paraphrased):

  • I don’t promise anything and anything can change at any moment, but I heard the following 2 statements:
    • Rav Chaim Kanievsky Shlit”a asked for people to prepare for him a new white garment.
      • Rav Zissholtz doesn’t think that this refers to a kittel, which doesn’t fit the description as it is too thin.  He must have meant something more substantial.
      • Rav Zissholtz rhetorically asks, “In whose honor would Rav Kanievsky need such a garment?”
    • Rav [Yosef] Nissan Shlit”a from Ramat Gan said that the Geula will come before Pesah and that the Beit Hamikdash will descend from Shamayim after the Seder night.
      • Rav Zissholtz prefaced this statement by saying that there are other Tzaddikim working hard to delay this in order to save other Jews.   (He said that these other Tzaddikim want “the Jews from Dizengoff, Herzliya, and Eilat to join the bandwagon, and if what Rav Nissan said actually occurs, they will be off the wagon.”)
      • Rav Zissholtz also said that Rav Nissan is someone who doesn’t generally talk about this.
      • The presenter later noted that Rabbanit Kook Tlit”a said the same.
  • Also Rav Dov Kook Shlit”a said that anyone who doesn’t do Teshuva now is not considered a transgressor, but rather is considered crazy [for seeing what’s going on in the world and not being moved to do Teshuva].
    • Rav Zissholtz said that everyone has what to do Teshuva for.

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Arutz Sheva http://www.israelnationalnews.com/

Amsterdam: Jewish community in great distress

Dutch authorities refusing to allow Jewish community to aid elderly coronavirus victims, Amsterdam rabbis say.

Yoni Kempinski , 08May2020 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/279913

Amsterdam Rabbi Eliezer Wolff and former Amsterdam Chief Rabbi Aryeh Ralbag spoke about how Holland’s healthcare system is failing to treat elderly coronavirus patients.

In a Zoom conference with the Conference of European Rabbis (CER), the two described the health authorities’ attitude towards coronavirus patients over 60 years of age.

“They don’t provide medical aid, certainly not ventilators, and to our great sorrow we have again seen actual opposition, even in the Jewish nursing home. They don’t evacuate patients who require hospitalization, and since we were called in to help, unfortunately, we have lost another four elderly. They also speed up their deaths, by giving them high doses of morphine,” the two said.

Dutch authorities rejected the CER’s offer to pay to hire a special doctor and purchase ventilators for the Jewish community.

Baruch Van De Kamp, one of the community’s more wealthy members, suggested allocating one of his hotels for the isolation of elderly patients who contracted coronavirus, but this suggestion was also rejected.

“It’s extremely saddening to hear that specifically a country considered to be ‘progressive’ is insensitive to the value of life and even determinedly refuses any aid offered by others, Moscow’s rabbi and CER President Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt said.

The rabbis have decided to speak to the leaders of the community and the nursing home, expressing their sharp protest, and to declare that they will use any means available to them, if they are not allowed to aid the elderly patients.

Later in the meeting, Rabbi Ralbag discussed the CER’s court in Amsterdam for women whose husbands refused to grant them a divorce, and the unprecedented ruling of the Dutch court: to arrest one of the divorce-refusing husbands for six months, due to his refusal to appear in the Jewish court.

“Even though he is not a resident of Holland, the court issued an arrest warrant for him, allowing any country which is a member of the European Union to enforce it,” he said.

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It’s time to come home! Nefesh B’Nefesh: Live the Dream 1-866-4-ALIYAH UK 0800 075 7200 Come home to the Land of Emuna

Nefesh B'Nefesh: Live the Dream 1-866-4-ALIYAH UK 0800 075 7200 Come home to the Land of Emuna

Click the Banner for www. nbn.org.il

Religious Jews are among the biggest victims of COVID-19

29March2020 Elder of Ziyon http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2020/03/religious-jews-are-among-biggest.html
Religious Jews are among the biggest victims of COVID-19

Boro Park. Flatbush. Crown Heights. Forest Hills. Fresh Meadows.

Every single New York neighborhood with a large religious Jewish population has the highest percentage of patients testing positive for the coronavirus, according to this map published by the NYC Department of Health.

Looking at New York State as a whole, the heavily Jewish Rockland County has a higher percentage of COVID-19 cases per capita than New York City (as far as I can tell, second only to Westchester County.)

And in New Jersey, the two towns with the highest number of COVID-19 cases are not the major cities of Newark (155) or Jersey City (130) or Camden (2) or Trenton (7).

They are the much smaller towns with large Jewish populations: Teaneck (population 37,000, Jews 15,000, 213 cases) and Lakewood (population 102,000, Jews 60,000, 198 cases.)

Even though Orthodox rabbis across the board closed down all schools and synagogues before the government authorities said to, the sheer amount of interaction that religious Jews have with their communities – often going to prayer services 2 or 3 times a day, and this year especially celebrating Purim (March 10) together with friends and family, made Orthodox Jewish communities Ground Zero for the coronavirus. This was not helped by the refusal of a small minority to shut down their synagogues and cancel wedding parties – stupid, selfish decisions that are ensuring that the numbers continue to grow as we approach the two week mark since rabbis first called for the shutdowns. There were reports that some Jews still insisted on praying with others as recently as Friday.

Only this week will we begin  find out the effectiveness of the shutdowns that started on March 12 in Teaneck/Bergen County and then spread across the region in the following week.

Every day we learn about more and more people we know, or in our circles, who have gotten ill or passed away. Often they are community leaders – rabbis and others – whose jobs involve close interaction with their followers.

It is a very scary time, and the worst is still to come.

We are facing a Passover without extended family. But it is necessary to keep all of our extended families as safe as possible.

And those who continue to pretend to be “frummer” by still praying with a minyan/quorum are playing Russian roulette with their families, and everyone else’s lives.

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https://nypost.com/

Brooklyn Hatzola issues dire coronavirus warning: ‘This is a crisis’

By Gabrielle Fonrouge 19March2020 https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/brooklyn-hatzola-issues-dire-coronavirus-warning-this-is-a-crisis/

As the number of people infected with coronavirus continued to soar in the Orthodox Jewish community Thursday, Hatzola leaders warned that things must change before it’s too late.

Borough Park’s Hatzola, an emergency ambulance service catering to the Jewish community, sent an urgent robocall across the neighborhood Thursday afternoon, a day after two urgent cares in the area reported an alarming spike in positive coronavirus cases.

“It seems that in our community of Borough Park, life is continuing as normal, business as usual. People are going about their daily lives as if nothing is happening,” the recording says.

“Many, many, many of our friends and family have contracted this virus and are not doing as well as we had hoped. This is a crisis… We need to do what’s right. And to the current moment, we have not done [that], we have not stepped up to the plate.”

On Thursday morning, Asisa Urgent Care said they had around 400 positive cases come out of their two Borough Park facilities and Williamsburg location, accounting for nearly half of Brooklyn’s 1,030 infections reported by City Hall. That’s up from about 150 from the day before.

The health care facility’s rep said about 99 percent of those tested were from the Jewish Orthodox community.

The Hatzola call to action implored members of the community to heed the advice of doctors and “stop mingling.”

“We must be more mindful of what’s happening and how we can stop the spread of this virus. We need to do more. We have done very little currently. We need to keep away from each other. We can’t stand next to each other. We have to protect each other as if we’re all fighting for our lives. This is no laughing matter,” the recording says.

“If we are not going to be taking this seriously, who knows who will be there to help us?”

During a press briefing late Thursday, Mayor Bill de Blasio insisted again there is “no cluster” of COVID-19 in Borough Park and said “that part of Brooklyn is not any more endangered than anywhere else.”

Additional reporting by Julia Marsh
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In the shadow of the Coronavirus epidemic

Arutz Sheva http://www.israelnationalnews.com/

Dear Diaspora Rabbis

This is not the time for well-meaning Internet messages and sermons about unity in times of trouble, nor about the renewal of Diaspora life when the epidemic has passed.

Tzvi Fishman 04April2020 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/25493

Tzvi Fishman was awarded the Israel Ministry of Education Prize for Jewish Culture and Creativity. Before making Aliyah to Israel in 1984, he was a successful Hollywood screenwriter. He has co-authored 4 books with Rabbi David Samson, based on the teachings of Rabbis A. Y. Kook and T. Y. Kook. His other books include: “The Kuzari For Young Readers” and “Tuvia in the Promised Land”. His books are available on Amazon. Recently, he directed the movie, “Stories of Rebbe Nachman.”
More from the author ►

Dear Diaspora Rabbis.

In the shadow of the Coronavirus epidemic, with love and concern for you and your communities, now that your synagogues are closed, on behalf of myriads of Jews in Israel, many of them olim from the Diaspora, we bid you to reach out to your congregants via the Internet and telephone, and urge them to make Aliyah now. The gates are fast closing, but it is not too late. The Jewish Agency and Aliyah organizations like Nefesh B’Nefesh are still working. Just as the Government of Israel is endeavoring around the clock to return touring Israelis from around the world on emergency rescue flights, the State of Israel will do the same for you and your congregants if you act today.

Now is not the time for procrastination and doubts. As Rabbi Kook once told a Jewish visitor to Israel, in order to free himself from the quagmire of the exile, a person must slay all extraneous excuses and not make an accounting (Heb. “Heshbone), just like the Jews exiting Egypt had to slay the King of Heshbone (name of king mentioned in the Bible)  before entering the Promised Land.

This is not the time for well-meaning Internet messages and sermons about unity in times of trouble, nor about the renewal of Diaspora life when the epidemic has passed. It is time to get out forever. If such an immediate relocation is too difficult for the aged, at the very least, all young Jews must be told the truth. Let them pack up a backpack and flee.

Families in the Diaspora – don’t hold onto your children! Think about their futures, not about yourselves. Already around the world, looting and violence have begun. First stores will be vandalized when people have no money and food. In several places, the Jews have already been blamed for the plague. Just as the virus spread suddenly before it could be stopped, Jew hatred will explode like a fiery cloud of gas, scorching everyone in its wake.

Overnight, masses will turn into savage skinheads and neo-Nazis. Hordes of desperate and wild packs will attack like rabid dogs. Jews and other innocents will be mugged, houses will be broken into, people will be shot, like in previous times. In Europe, hungry minorities will turn into rampaging gangs.

JerusalemCats Comments: Just look at the Tweet from March 31, 2020 of all the stores boarded up!

Thousands of stores in New York have boarded up their doors and windows to avoid possible looting TRT World @trtworld tweet 31March2020

Thousands of stores in New York have boarded up their doors and windows to avoid possible looting TRT World @trtworld tweet 31March2020

In many places, the governments will look on silently as Jews are attacked, claiming that there is nothing they can do. In other places, like America, the authorities will not have the manpower to prevent the anarchy. There are complaints from patients in New York hospitals that aides are not entering rooms with Jews.

The time to flee was years ago, but if not now, when? Experts are predicting that the evil could rage for months and more. At the very least, let the young people go! Rabbis, parents, if you love them, command them to flee! Let the cry be, “This year in Jerusalem!” If not, for a ghastly number, Passover will not come again, and homes of Jews will be passed over in a different, opposite sense, may the Almighty have mercy.

The exile was never meant to last forever. Hashem meant the exile to be a curse, but, beaten down by the long oppression, we turned it into the illusion of having found havens of welcome and peace. The word of the Almighty is not a whimsical thing that can change with our fancies. He decreed the curse of exile, and He decreed that His outcast and scattered children would one day return. That time came with the founding of the Jewish State.

For those who didn’t hear the call, or who refused to listen, the call of Corona, the virus of the Crown, of Hashem’s Kingship, is clear. Let it be the great shofar of our freedom. Now!

There is a refuge in Israel, as our prophets foretold. Yes, we have problems. Yes, the virus is here as well. But the State of Israel reacted quickly to the threat. Every effort is being made to protect the Jewish people and overcome the enemy.

In Israel, you will be amongst fellow Jews, with Jewish policemen and a Jewish army, and not at the mercy of strangers. Rabbis, Jewish educators, Federation presidents, and leaders of Jewish organizations – send the Jews to Israel!

Teach by example! Show the way! Break through the sea of indecision and fear. We are waiting on the other side of the ocean to welcome you. Be brave like Nachshon. Leap into the waters of faith. Come home now!

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Arutz Sheva http://www.israelnationalnews.com/

The Aliya Apocalypse is coming

The difference between the situation of Jews in the Diaspora and those in Israel during the corona pandemic has led to a change in the way Diaspora Jews look at the Jewish state, from the Zionists to the haredim to the progressives.

Rabbi Elchanan Poupko 20April2020 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/25567

Rabbi Elchanan Poupko

The writer is a rabbi, writer, teacher, and blogger (www.rabbipoupko.com). He lives with his wife in New York City and is the president of EITAN – The American-Israeli Jewish Network
More from the author ►

Aliyah landing

If there is one thing we know about the post-coronavirus era that connects with the post WWII eraa, it is that we have no idea what the world will look like.. Who will be the winners? Who will be the losers? We do not know what industries will survive and which won’t, which economies will rise, and which will crumble.
One thing we do know for certain: the Aliya apocalypse is coming.

As many have noted, for American Jews, the notion that America is a first-world country, and Israel is some kind of second world country can no longer exist. Sitting in New York hearing the harrowing sounds of ambulances all day and all night, while watching videos of Israelis singing Ma Nishtana from their balconies, can never be erased. The far superior management of the coronavirus outbreak in Israel, while we felt stranded and abandoned by state policies, will never disappear. Haredi Jews in Brooklyn and Rockland County who had seen tens of deaths a day for the past few weeks will never again be able to look down on Israel.

The contrast between the swift and effective action taken in Israel confronting the coronavirus, although it did suffer fatalities – a much lower number proportionately than outside Israel –  contrasted with the slow and inadequate actions taken against it in most states in America, highlights the technological, governmental, and medical superiority Israel has been able to exercise in defense of its citizens. This is something everyone considering making Aliya will now have on their minds. This is not true only of Jews in America. It is also true of Jews in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Australia, and more.

Then comes the economic aspect.

We do not know when economies will go back to function. We do know that many aspects of the economy may never come back. Others will be very hard hit. We do know that the world may be facing the greatest economic depression since the 1930s.

For American Jews it’s a simple choice: would you like to stay here to find out what a full-blown economic catastrophe looks like during an unresolved pandemic, with no guarantee for health insurance, not able to afford your children’s education, or would you like to take your chances and go to Israel? In Israel, you are guaranteed almost free healthcare—which has proven itself far superior and more effective—free or low-cost high-quality Jewish education (and low-cost higher education), and effective public policy (albeit with a civic license to complain and insane politics).

It is hard to imagine this will be a difficult choice. Once the airways reopen, and a ravaged world economy emerges, it is likely we will see an Aliya apocalypse. Americans from all walks of life are likely to find the fast track back to Israel.

Another group that is likely to find their way back are Israeli yordim, those who emigrated to other countries. Many of them decided to take a risk and relocate so they could succeed at building a better standard of life in New York, Florida, Berlin, or Los Angeles. When economic opportunities are at a one hundred year low, when they are guaranteed a better healthcare system, when the world is far less globalized than ever before, many of them are likely to jump on the first flight back to Israel available to them. Many have already.

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Every day I turn with horror to the various sites to see if there is anyone I know, a family member, a friend, or a known community leader.

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Another change we are likely to see in Israeli-Diaspora relations is between the haredi sector and Israel. My heart bleeds as I think of the dozens who died and die every day in Brooklyn, Rockland County, Lakewood, Kiryas Joel, and more. Every day I turn with horror to the various sites to see if there is anyone I know, a family member, a friend, or a known community leader. Sadly, this happens almost every day and I hope is on a downward trend.
Seeing this happen in our community (I see myself as part of this community in many ways) while sister communities in Israel go almost unscathed – and seeing the IDF helping haredim in Bnei Brak with food and transportation to hotels to save the elderly) is going to change attitudes towards Israel. No longer can Israel be viewed as the Nebach subject of pity and America as the benevolent stable one. There is likely to be a reversal of roles which is likely to impact decision making. More haredi and Yeshivish Jews will see Aliya as a sensible and desirable decision.

I vividly recall standing in my home in New York, at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, getting one of the usual charity calls from Israel. “You know the situation here is very difficult,” was the pitch. I couldn’t even pretend to listen. Hundreds of people were dying in New York and they were asking for sympathy? Thank G-d, they did not need it as much as we do! American Jews will realize that not being the big brother—benevolent uncle Sam—is not much fun.

Earlier this year, Rav Ahron, one of the two current Satmar Rebbes, came from Brooklyn to Israel, greeted by thousands, donating five million dollars to non-Zionist institutions. There was a subtle message about his arrival. The drones on the way to the airport, the private jets, the fancy motorcades, dashing out cash to supporters, all gave a simple message: American dollars can outdo Zionism. Rabbi Mordechai Berkovitch, a leading figure in the Satmar community in America, said it then outright: “the Zionists bought the Jews of Israel for a few dollars, we are going to get them back with millions of dollars. We are going to fight them face to face.”

If indeed this was a battle between the Brooklyn dollar and the Israeli Shekel, the outcome is not looking great for Brooklyn. Time to begin opting for Jerusalem over a beleaguered Brooklyn.

This symbolism is not just true for Brooklyn. Jews in haredi communities in London, Manchester, and beyond will do the same. It is hard to imagine Jewish communities like Antwerp, Belgium, which are now bracing an 85% coronavirus infection rate, soon forgetting how much better off their cousins in Israel were during this period. Israel will become a far more appealing option than ever before.

Progressive Jews won’t fall far behind either. Especially young ones. Reflecting on my days of hitting the job market during the 2008 recession, I can say with certainty there is nothing exciting about hitting a job market in decline. No matter what you think about Netanyahu, he did not abandon his citizens during the coronavirus outbreak just because they didn’t vote for him. Those who lived in blue states during this outbreak felt, although unjustifiably, abandoned and stranded by the federal government. The possibility of a country with nationalized healthcare, effective public health systems, an economy that is open both to the West and the East, is likely to appeal to many young Jews.

During this coronavirus outbreak, we should be thinking about our friends, family, grandparents, and members of our community. We should be thinking about how to get over this 21st century horror alive and well, care for others, and look out for anyone we can. Israel has done so in a spectacular way. For that reason, Israel should also be preparing for the Aliya Apocalypse. Once the airways are open, many Jews will be saying: this year in Jerusalem. Israel should prepare to embrace them.

Hotovely discusses new strategy with heads of Nefesh B’Nefesh

Nissan 26, 5780 , 20April2020 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/496520
Diaspora Minister Tzipi Hotovely held a discussion today with the heads of Nefesh B’Nefesh and Ms. Lori Palatnik, founder of the Momentum movement regarding creation of a strategic plan for Diaspora Jewry in wake of the coronavirus crisis.

Hotovely that “World Jewry is faced with a new reality following the coronavirus crisis. There is an awakening among the communities and we must be prepared for an Aliyah wave – to reach out and provide a warm home to every Jew during such a difficult time.”

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The roles have reversed with the US and Israel! Now Israel is providing the volunteers to aid the US. It is time for US Jews to make Aliyah before it is to late.

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Israeli NGO Steps Up to Help Americans in Time of Need During Coronavirus Pandemic

by Gary Shapiro 22April2020 https://www.algemeiner.com/2020/04/22/israeli-ngo-steps-up-to-help-americans-in-time-of-need-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

Twenty-two-year-old Amir Kashfi arrives early in the morning around 6:30 a.m. outside a Los Angeles school to set up boxes of canned goods, pasta, rice and other non-perishables to dispense. A number of recipients line up by car or by foot by 8 a.m.

The need for this food pantry has spiked during the ongoing coronavirus crisis.

“There’s a huge increase in demand because of the pandemic,” said Kashfi, a volunteer with IsraAID, an Israel-based NGO that partners with Los Angeles Regional Food Bank and Team Rubicon, which is a US veterans organization, among others in these efforts. “It hurts my heart to see so many in need.”

“Our goal is to be there for the community,” said Seth Davis, chief executive officer of IsraAID US.

He noted that the short-term goal was to fill a gap and get food to people in need, but the long-term goal was to create a cadre in the community who can respond to such crises. In addition to Los Angeles, IsraAID has helped operate food banks in other California locations, including San Diego, Orange County, San Jose and Santa Barbara.

Davis said, “This deployment will go on for months, because even if the curve flattens, there’s going to be a long tail of people still in need of food and financial help.”

“These are unprecedented times,” Dr. Lucy Uber, another volunteer, said. “Food is a basic necessity that most of us take for granted.”

She reflected on the precariousness that many were experiencing at the moment. “Many of these people live in what is already referred to as a food desert,” said Uber. “Add the coronavirus crisis and there is financial devastation.”

For her employment, not as a volunteer, she works in the emergency room at Children’s Hospital Los Angeles.

Uber said, “The full socioeconomic impact of the coronavirus crisis may not be known for years.”

The pediatrician Uber connected with IsraAID through a classmate from high school, Farah Shamolian, who works for IsraAID. “I went into medicine because I wanted to help people,” Uber said.

After Uber attended medical school in Tel Aviv, she said, “I wanted to keep Israel close to my heart.”

She is also part of the IsraAID Humanitarian Professionals Network, a collective of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, psychologists and others involved in humanitarian relief and disaster response. Uber said, “Its goal is to educate and motivate people to be ready to respond to crises abroad and locally.”

In 2018, IsraAID deployed Kashfi to Berlin where he worked with Farsi-speaking refugees from Afghanistan, Iran and Tajikistan, as well Arab refugees from Iraq and Syria.

Kashfi said, “It was not lost on me that I’m a Persian Jewish kid from Los Angeles helping Arab and Muslim refugees through an Israeli organization in a country where the Holocaust happened. You can’t make that up.”

IsraAid, which has worked in 52 countries worldwide, has helped the US in crises before.

In 2005, IsraAID assisted those in the path of Hurricane Katrina. It also sent a team in 2012 to help with Superstorm Sandy recovery efforts. It has responded to Hurricane Harvey in Texas, Hurricane Michael in Florida and Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas. They were also responders to the more recent fire of Paradise, California, working with local community leaders and caregivers to deal with the trauma.

IsraAID is currently speaking with potential partners in helping New York state’s response to COVID-19. The organization already had a satellite office in New York.

What might the focus be? Davis said, “People put a lot of focus on protective gear, the physical injury and the loss of life, but people are not putting enough focus on mental health and the emotional injury.”

He added, “We don’t want people to get PTSD, but to have PTG or post-traumatic growth. We can build our skill set that caregivers, religious leaders and people in education have to help people bounce back stronger.”

Davis said part of the focus will be on helping children, educators and healthcare professionals.

IsraAID is not limited to the physical world in its efforts to assist. It also is helping in the virtual world. For, IsraAID designed a free online webinar to offer mental health support to those who experienced trauma during the COVID-19 crisis.

It offers 12 practical ways to reduce anxiety and stress. It was devised in Israel at the headquarters of IsraAID by mental health and protection professionals.

The volunteer Kashfi said, “IsraAID is not religious or political. It is a professional humanitarian organization. It’s a welcome side effect that our work reflects the values of Israel in a positive light.”

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Pesach Seder: Protect your Grandparents

Arsen-strovsky-tweet-30March2020 Powerful message from @naftalibennett to Jewish communities around the world ahead of #Pesach: "Do the Pesach Seder in the very nuclear family. You do not do it this year with grandma and grandpa. There will be no Pesach Seder with young people and old people."

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https://www.zerohedge.com/

Authoritarianism In The Age Of Pseudoscience

by Tyler Durden 09May2020 https://www.zerohedge.com/health/authoritarianism-age-pseudoscience

Authored by Colin Todhunter via Off-Guardian.org,

Following the court decision in the US to award in favour of Dewayne Johnson (exposure to Monsanto’s Roundup weed killer and its active ingredient, glyphosate, caused Johnson to develop non-Hodgkin lymphoma), attorney Robert Kennedy Jr said at the post-trial press conference:

The corruption of science, the falsification of science, and we saw all those things happen here. This is a company (Monsanto) that used all of the plays in the playbook developed over 60 years by the tobacco industry to escape the consequences of killing one of every five of its customers… Monsanto… has used those strategies…”

Johnson’s lawyers argued over the course of the month-long trial in 2018 that Monsanto had “fought science” for years and targeted academics who spoke up about possible health risks of the herbicide product.

Monsanto Roundup sign near crops

Long before the Johnson case, critics of Monsanto were already aware of the practices the company had engaged in for decades to undermine science. At the same time, Monsanto and its lobbyists had called anyone who questioned the company’s ‘science’ as engaging in pseudoscience and labelled them ‘anti-science’.

We need look no further than the current coronavirus issue to understand how vested interests are set to profit by spinning the crisis a certain way and how questionable science is again being used to pursue policies that are essentially ‘unscientific’ – governments, the police and the corporate media have become the arbiters of ‘truth’.

Health Ranger DECLARES: End the LOCKDOWNS; launch the TAKEDOWNS

Health Ranger Report 07May2020

What directions to go with science

We also see anyone challenging the policies and the ‘science’ being censored on social media or not being given a platform on TV and accused of engaging in ‘misinformation’.

It’s the same old playbook.

The case-fatality ratio for COVID-19 is so low as to make the lockdown response wholly disproportionate. Yet we are asked to blindly accept government narratives and the policies based on them.

Making an entire country go home and stay home has immense, incalculable costs in terms of well-being and livelihoods. This itself has created a pervasive sense of panic and crisis and is largely a result of the measures taken against the ‘pandemic’ and not of the virus itself.

Certain epidemiologists have said there is very little sturdy evidence to base lockdown policies on, but this has not prevented politicians from acting as if everything they say or do is based on solid science.

The lockdown would not be merited if we were to genuinely adopt a knowledge-based approach. If we look at early projections by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College in the UK, he had grossly overstated the number of possible deaths resulting from the coronavirus and has now backtracked substantially.

Ferguson has a chequered track record, which led UK newspaper The Telegraph to run a piece entitled ‘How accurate was the science that led to lockdown?’ The article outlines Ferguson’s previous flawed predictions about infectious diseases and a number of experts raise serious questions about the modelling that led to lockdown in the UK.

Ferguson’s previous modelling for the spread of epidemics was so off the mark that it may beggar believe that anyone could have faith in anything he says, yet he remains part of the UK government’s scientific advisory group. Officials are now talking of ‘easing’ lockdowns, but Ferguson warns that lockdown in the UK will only be lifted once a vaccine for COVID-19 has been found.

It raises the question: when will Ferguson be held to account for his current and previously flawed work and his exaggerated predictions? Because, on the basis of his modelling, the UK has been in lockdown for many weeks, the results of which are taking a toll on the livelihoods and well-being of the population which are and will continue to far outweigh the effects of COVID-19.

According to a 1982 academic study, a 1% increase in the unemployment rate will be associated with 37,000 deaths [including 20,000 heart attacks, 920 suicides, 650 homicides], 4,000 state mental hospital admissions and 3,300 state prison admissions.

Consider that by 30 April, in the US alone, 30 million had filed for unemployment benefit since the lockdown began. Between 23 and 30 April, some 3.8 million filed for unemployment benefit. Prior to the current crisis, the unemployment rate was 3.5%. Some predict it could eventually reach 30%.

Ferguson – whose model was the basis for policies elsewhere in addition to the UK – is as much to blame as anyone for the current situation. And it is a situation that has been fuelled by a government and media promoted fear narrative that has had members of the public so afraid of the virus that many have been demanding further restrictions of their liberty by the state in order to ‘save’ them.

Even with the promise of easing the lockdown, people seem to be fearful of venturing out in the near future thanks to the fear campaign they have been subjected to.

Instead of encouraging more diverse, informed and objective opinions in the mainstream, we too often see money and power forcing the issue, not least in the form of Bill Gates who tells the world ‘normality’ may not return for another 18 months – until he and his close associates in the pharmaceuticals industry find a vaccine and we are all vaccinated.

In the UK, the population is constantly subjected via their TV screens to clap for NHS workers, support the NHS and to stay home and save lives on the basis of questionable data and policies. Emotive stuff taking place under a ruling Conservative Party that has cut thousands of hospital beds, frozen staff pay, placed workers on zero-hour contracts and demonised junior doctors.

It is also using the current crisis to accelerate the privatisation of state health care.

In recent weeks, ministers have used special powers to bypass normal tendering and award a string of contracts to private companies and management consultants without open competition.

But if cheap propaganda stunts do not secure the compliance, open threats will suffice. For instance, in the US, city mayors and local politicians have threatened to ‘hunt down’, monitor social media and jail those who break lockdown rules.

Prominent conservative commentator Tucker Carlson asks who gave these people the authority to tear up the US constitution; what gives them the right to threaten voters while they themselves or their families have been exposed as having little regard for lockdown norms. As overhead drones bark out orders to residents, Carlson wonders how the US – almost overnight – transformed into a totalitarian state.

With a compliant media failing to hold tyrannical officials to account, Carlson’s concerns mirror those of Lionel Shriver in the UK, writing in The Spectator, who declares that the supine capitulation of Britain to a de facto police state has been one of the most depressing spectacles he has ever witnessed.

Under the pretext of tracking and tracing the spread of the virus, the UK government is rolling out an app which will let the likes of Apple and Google monitor a person’s every location visited and every physical contact. There seems to be little oversight in terms of privacy.

The contact-tracing app has opted for a centralised model of data collection: all the contact-tracing data is not to be deleted but anonymized and kept under one roof in one central government database for ‘research purposes’.

We may think back to Cambridge Analytica’s harvesting of Facebook data to appreciate the potential for data misuse. But privacy is the least concern for governments and the global tech giants in an age where ‘data’ has become monetized as a saleable commodity, with the UK data market the second biggest in the world and valued at over a billion pounds in 2018.

Paranoia is usually the ever-present bedfellow of fear and many people have been very keen to inform the authorities that their neighbours may have been breaking social distancing rules.

Moreover, although any such opinion poll cannot be taken at face value and could be regarded as part of the mainstream fear narrative itself, a recent survey suggests that only 20% of Britons are in favour of reopening restaurants, schools, pubs and stadiums.

Is this to be the new ‘normal’, whereby fear, mistrust, division and suspicion are internalized throughout society? In an age of fear and paranoia, are we all to be ‘contact traced’ and regarded by others as a ‘risk’ until we prove ourselves by wearing face masks and by voluntarily subjecting ourselves to virus tests at the entrances to stores or in airports?

And if we refuse or test positive, are we to be shamed, isolated and forced to comply by being ‘medicated’ (vaccinated and chipped)?

Is this the type of world that’s soon to be regarded as ‘normal’?

A world in which liberty and fundamental rights mean nothing. A world dominated by shaming and spurious notions of personal responsibility that are little more than ideological constructs of a hegemonic narrative which labels rational thinking people as ‘anti-science’ – a world in which the scourge of authoritarianism reigns supreme.

* * *

As this article was going to press, it was announced that Neil Ferguson is resigning from his role as science advisor to Boris Johnson’s government, in the wake of the allegations he has broken the lockdown rules he himself recommended in order to meet his girlfriend .

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https://www.zerohedge.com/

Why The COVID-19 Model That Inspired UK’s Lockdown May Be “The Most Devastating Software Mistake Of All Time”

by Tyler Durden 18May2020 – 02:45 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-covid-19-model-inspired-uks-lockdown-may-be-most-devastating-software-mistake-all-time

While Democrats in the US and progressives in the UK continue to push back against efforts to gradually reopen their respective economies, more evidence is emerging that calls into question the models (what the public often refers to as the “science”) which inspired governments across the world to impose crippling lockdowns on their populations.

Case in point: Since Neil Ferguson and the authors of the Imperial published its modeling for non-pharmaceutical intervention for COVID-19, a number of data scientists have taken a close look and found gaping oversights that seriously undermine the model’s credibility. Of course, this isn’t the first time we have written about Ferguson and his exploits.

In this weekend’s Telegraph, two of these critics, David Richards, the founder and CEO of global big data leader WANdisco which is jointly headquartered in Silicon Valley and Sheffield, and Dr. Konstantin Boudnik, a pioneering big-data engineer, WANdisco’s VP of architecture and author of 17 US patents, published an editorial in which they carefully examined the model’s shortcomings. Keep in mind, the Imperial model is what ultimately inspired PM Boris Johnson to make a U-turn and adopt what has been an economically devastating lockdown – was nothing short of a catastrophe. Millions have been plunged into hardship and poverty unnecessarily, they explained. Johnson himself was infected by the virus and the public is furious with the government over its rollout of a plan to reopen.

Given the influence the model had during the early days of the outbreak, the two men argued that the software issues underpinning the model could be ‘the most devastating software mistake of all time’.

Apparently, the model’s problems are rooted in its most fundamental components. The model was written using a coding language called  Fortran which has been in use for decades.

Due to its age and inflexibility, Fortran has many inherent problems. But on top of the language itself, the code in the model was sprawling, sloppily written and extremely inefficient, the two men said, claiming it would never pass muster in the private sector.

Using straightforward, jargon-free language, the two authors explain how the model ran into a problem called “CACE”, or, ‘changing anything changes everything’ – a problem that software engineers and data scientists trying to model, well, anything, really, often encounter.

The approach ignores widely accepted computer science principles known as “separation of concerns”, which date back to the early 70s and are essential to the design and architecture of successful software systems. The principles guard against what developers call CACE: Changing Anything Changes Everything.

Without this separation, it is impossible to carry out rigorous testing of individual parts to ensure full working order of the whole. Testing allows for guarantees. It is what you do on a conveyer belt in a car factory. Each and every component is tested for integrity in order to pass strict quality controls.

It’s just the latest reminder that President Barack Obama’s advice to this year’s graduates rings true: You can’t just blindly accept what the experts and the people in charge tell you.

Read the full editorial below:

* * *

In the history of expensive software mistakes, Mariner 1 was probably the most notorious. The unmanned spacecraft was destroyed seconds after launch from Cape Canaveral in 1962 when it veered dangerously off-course due to a line of dodgy code.

But nobody died and the only hits were to Nasa’s budget and pride. Imperial College’s modelling of non-pharmaceutical interventions for Covid-19 which helped persuade the UK and other countries to bring in draconian lockdowns will supersede the failed Venus space probe and could go down in history as the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost.

Since publication of Imperial’s microsimulation model, those of us with a professional and personal interest in software development have studied the code on which policymakers based their fateful decision to mothball our multi-trillion pound economy and plunge millions of people into poverty and hardship. And we were profoundly disturbed at what we discovered. The model appears to be totally unreliable and you wouldn’t stake your life on it.

First though, a few words on our credentials. I am David Richards, founder and chief executive of WANdisco, a global leader in Big Data software that is jointly headquartered in Silicon Valley and Sheffield. My co-author is Dr Konstantin ‘Cos’ Boudnik, vice-president of architecture at WANdisco, author of 17 US patents in distributed computing and a veteran developer of the Apache Hadoop framework that allows computers to solve problems using vast amounts of data.

Imperial’s model appears to be based on a programming language called Fortran, which was old news 20 years ago and, guess what, was the code used for Mariner 1. This outdated language contains inherent problems with its grammar and the way it assigns values, which can give way to multiple design flaws and numerical inaccuracies. One file alone in the Imperial model contained 15,000 lines of code.

Try unravelling that tangled, buggy mess, which looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming. Industry best practice would have 500 separate files instead. In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.

The approach ignores widely accepted computer science principles known as “separation of concerns”, which date back to the early 70s and are essential to the design and architecture of successful software systems. The principles guard against what developers call CACE: Changing Anything Changes Everything.

Without this separation, it is impossible to carry out rigorous testing of individual parts to ensure full working order of the whole. Testing allows for guarantees. It is what you do on a conveyer belt in a car factory. Each and every component is tested for integrity in order to pass strict quality controls.

Only then is the car deemed safe to go on the road. As a result, Imperial’s model is vulnerable to producing wildly different and conflicting outputs based on the same initial set of parameters. Run it on different computers and you would likely get different results. In other words, it is non-deterministic.

As such, it is fundamentally unreliable. It screams the question as to why our Government did not get a second opinion before swallowing Imperial’s prescription.

Ultimately, this is a computer science problem and where are the computer scientists in the room? Our leaders did not have the grounding in computer science to challenge the ideas and so were susceptible to the academics. I suspect the Government saw what was happening in Italy with its overwhelmed hospitals and panicked.

It chose a blunt instrument instead of a scalpel and now there is going to be a huge strain on society. Defenders of the Imperial model argue that because the problem – a global pandemic – is dynamic, then the solution should share the same stochastic, non-deterministic quality.

We disagree. Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parameters. Otherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable.

Indeed, many global industries successfully use deterministic models that factor in randomness. No surgeon would put a pacemaker into a cardiac patient knowing it was based on an arguably unpredictable approach for fear of jeopardising the Hippocratic oath. Why on earth would the Government place its trust in the same when the entire wellbeing of our nation is at stake?

* * *

Source: The Telegraph

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https://www.zerohedge.com/

“Tourist Go Home” – Tensions Soar As Hawaiians Urge Non-Residents To “Leave”

by Tyler Durden 20April202020 https://www.zerohedge.com/health/tourist-go-home-tensions-soar-hawaiians-urge-non-residents-leave

JerusalemCats Comments: It is time for the Jews in Hawaii to Pack up and come home to Israel. The Israeli Backpackers are already coming home to Israel.

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Hawaiians are becoming increasingly angry, not because the tourism industry has collapsed, and 37% of the labor force has just filed for unemployment, but mostly because US mainlanders, motivated by super discounted flights and hotel rooms, continue to pour into the various Hawaiian Islands during the pandemic.

Troy Kane, a local on Oahu, who was interviewed by The Guardian, said residents are abiding by the stay-at-home orders as cases and deaths surge. He points out tourists on the island are ignoring social distancing rules and risk spreading the virus to locals.

“Locals are following the orders, staying home. But there are people, who are clearly tourists, here by the dozens,” said Kane. “They’re still out here, still in groups of seven or more, still coming, and that’s a problem.”

The Guardian says, “$100 airfares” are enticing people in quarantine in the continental US to vacation in Hawaii. Last week, nearly 800 tourists arrived on the islands. The influx triggered a nerve among locals and officials who argue tourists need to leave.

As of Monday, 580 cases and ten deaths have been confirmed across the Hawaiian Islands. About 35 cases have been non-residents.

US Coronavirus Map 20April2020

US Coronavirus Map 20April2020

Kane is a neighborhood board member and community representative of Waimanalo and says the native Hawaiian and Micronesian populations on the islands are at higher risk of contracting the disease. He worries for his community and family that tourists are blatantly disregarding the public health order.

“People will always see this place as their playground. And in this moment, as a Native Hawaiian, this is very reflective of many historical circumstances, where people from outside of the islands have come in and caused real harm to the native population. It’s not always with the direct intent to do so, but the impacts, especially on Hawaiian people, are very real,” he said.

“If you take our history, it tells us that we are not very well protected.”

Hawaiians last month protested tourists arriving at the Maui airport. Some held signs that said: “TOURIST GO HOME,” “LEAVE OUR AINA!,” “TIME TO GO,” and “GO HOME.”

Maui residents protesting tourist near airport on 21March2020. h/t Star-Advertiser

Maui residents protesting tourist near airport on 21March2020. h/t Star-Advertiser

Protester near airport on 21March2020. h/t Star-Advertiser

Protester near airport on 21March2020. h/t Star-Advertiser

Protesters near Maui airport on 21March2020 h/t Star-Advertiser

Protesters near Maui airport on 21March2020 h/t Star-Advertiser

Josh Masslon, a Maui-based ICU nurse, said the healthcare system on the islands does not have enough capacity to handle a virus outbreak.

“It’s beyond frustrating,” said Masslon. “We cannot handle an outbreak with our resident population alone.”

Masslon said he’s called the police on tourists for breaking the public health order.

So, at what point do Hawaiians, fed up with ignorant tourists breaking social distancing rules and risk infecting the local community, take the law into their own hands and start blocking airport exits, preventing new arrivals from entering?

Hawaii Arrests ‘Rogue Tourists’ In COVID Contagion Crackdown

by Tyler Durden 08May2020 – https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hawaii-arrests-rogue-tourists-covid-contagion-crackdown

As the travel and tourism industry implodes, savvy consumers, with zero f*cks given about contracting the virus, have been buying cheap airfare to Hawaii, along with heavily discounted rooms at top resorts. Around mid/late March, when strict stay-at-home orders went into effect, locals, who were confined to their homes, noticed many of these tourists were disregarding public health orders. This infuriated some who allege that if an outbreak on the island(s) was seen, it could easily overwhelm the local hospital system.

By late March, tensions between locals and tourists were quickly building. A group of locals held a protest at Kahului Airport in Maui County, holding up signs that read: “TOURIST GO HOME,” “LEAVE OUR AINA!,” “TIME TO GO,” and “GO HOME.”

 

By mid-April, the Hawaii Tourism Authority issued a $25,000 grant to nonprofit Visitor Aloha Society of Hawaii (VASH) to fund a program that would issue one-way plane tickets to tourists who broke 14-day quarantine orders or other social distancing rules. As of April 26, we noted about 26 tourists were provided one-way tickets back to their home airports for breaking the rules.

Now it appears things are getting serious in the state. Authorities are arresting “rogue tourist” who break quarantine orders:

“A newlywed California couple left their Waikiki hotel room repeatedly, despite being warned by hotel staff, and were arrested. Others have been arrested at a hotel pool, loading groceries into a vehicle outside a Costco and bringing take-out food back to a hotel room,” AP News said.

The strict measures, some of the most stringent in the country, have been working to suppress the outbreak. As of Friday, about 629 cases and 17 deaths have been reported in the state, a relatively low number when compared with Northeast states.

 

Hawaii sacrificed its largest industry: tourism – to fend off the virus. With many resorts, restaurants, and other businesses closed, unemployment has skyrocketed to 25% to 35%. At least 100 hotels have suspended operations as locals stay home to weather the public health crisis.

 

Honolulu City Councilmember Kym Pine said the sacrifices Hawaiians are making today to protect their communities, in the long run, is hugely disrespectful when a tourist comes to the state and blatantly ignores the rules.

“The people that are coming don’t care about us. They’re coming to Hawaii on the cheap and they obviously could care less whether they get the virus or not,” she said. “So they obviously could care less about that mom and dad who have no job and no food.”

AP says the honeymooning couple, Borice Lepovskiy, 20, and Yuliia Andreichenko, 26, of California, refused to sign a “quarantine agreement” after they came back late one night after picking up pizza. The next morning, they left their room and were arrested.

At least 20 people have been arrested statewide on charges of breaking quarantine orders. Many others have been given warnings or citations. Anyone who is convicted of the violation is subjected to a $5,000 fine and a year in jail.

“Officials have even considered having travelers wear an ankle bracelet during their quarantine period, or setting up a designated site where tourists would be required to stay at for the 14 days,” AP notes.

Mufi Hannemann, president and CEO of Hawaii Lodging and Tourism Association, said hotel key cards are being programmed to only allow people to check-in – so when they leave their rooms – they will need to get a new card, which would be a red flag for front-desk workers that the tourist potentially violated quarantine rules.

AP provides several other accounts of tourists being arrested:

Last month, a pair arrived on Kauai and were told to go directly to their hotel. Kauai police stopped them after they were seen going in the opposite direction of their hotel.

Adam Schwarze, 36, who police said lives on Oahu and his travel companion, Desiree Marvin, 31, of Alexandria, Virginia, were ultimately arrested in the parking lot of a grocery store.

Leif Anthony Johansen, 60, of Truckee, California, was supposed to be in quarantine but was spotted on a personal watercraft off Oahu’s famed North Shore. He was later followed to a Costco, where agents from the state attorney general’s office arrested him as he was loading groceries into his vehicle.

Hannemann said he’s surprised that people still are coming to Hawaii considering much of the attractions are shutdown:

“I am, quite frankly, quite surprised that people would still want to come because this is not the Hawaii that you’ve dreamed about, that you want to experience,” said Hannemann of the tourism and lodging association. “There’s a lot of attractions that are closed. Everyone is walking around with masks. You know, we’re just not going to demonstrate that spirit of aloha that you’ve heard so much about. … So to me, it’s just crazy for someone to still want to come here.”

And a word to the wise – it’s probably a good idea to stay away from Hawaii at the moment. The next thing you know, law enforcement might start tracking tourists with GPS bracelets.

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Some Bad News From JPMorgan:This Is What Happens After We Pass The Virus Peak

by Tyler Durden 07April2020 https://www.zerohedge.com/health/some-bad-news-jpm-what-happens-after-we-pass-virus-peak

Yesterday, when giving an update  on the global coronavirus infection curve, and highlighting where various nations currently reside on the curve, we said what has become conventional wisdom, namely that “with every passing day, the world – most of which is currently on lock down – gets closer to the infection inflection point, and as the updated “corona curve” chart shows, all the nations that were in the exponential rise phase (acceleration), are now moving into the stage of infection growth rate slowdown (accumulation), suggesting that a peak for most countries is now just a matter of time, at which point the number of new cases will start slowing down aggressively. This means that while US cases continue to soar, the light at the end of the tunnel is now visible.”

infection growth rate curve stage

infection growth rate curve stage

Some, such as JPMorgan’s delightfully permabullish quant Marko Kolanovic (who is so keen on giving flashbacks to his notes from x weeks ago, if not so much his “once in a decade” call to buy value/short low-vol stocks last July), ran with this data to its extreme conclusion, writing today that his models “have indicated that social distancing is working and that the apex of the pandemic will come sooner and require significantly less peak hospitalizations than projected by the models used by government officials at the time.”

In short, it’s all downhill from here on the corona-curve… literally, which is great news if that was all there is to it as every analyst-trader-amateur-epidemiologist jumps to conclude.

Unfortunately, it turns out that there is much more to it what happens next than “conventional wisdom” hot takes and amateur Wall Street virologists would have you believe, because in a separate not from a far more erudite JPM analyst – at least when it comes to coronavirus analysis – the bank’s MW Kim writes that the first apex is just the beginning, and then – as China is learning now as it reports the most new cases in a month

Asymptotic cases vs confirmed cases

Asymptotic cases vs confirmed cases

… it gets much worse again as the second infection wave is unleashed, then the third, and so on.

So what’s really going on?

First let’s do the good news, which as JPM’s MW Kim notes, have to do with the slowdown in global infections which grew 62% w/w to 1,275,542, while infection growth momentum has slowed compared to ~95% w/w ten days ago.

Global new Covid-19 Cases 07April2020

Global new Covid-19 Cases 07April2020

Furthermore, as we reported yesterday, several of the larger impacted countries are now in the slower infection growth rate accumulating stage (the latest curve chart as of this morning is shown below)…

infection growth rate curve stage 07April2020

infection growth rate curve stage 07April2020

… and JPM is optimistic that post Easter holidays, market focus could likely shift towards “infection peak”/ “recovery statistics” from the current ‘daily new additions’.

Now, and as is customary, are the not so good news: MW Kim cautions that his findings on COVID-19 so far include (1) the lack of a vaccine makes it difficult to clear the virus; (2) social distancing is an expensive strategy in terms of economic/ social cost perspective; (3) it may perhaps prove challenging to build popular acceptance of stricter social distancing for more than a month.

Therefore, and this is the key part, JPMorgan (at least the non-quant part of JPMorgan) “cannot rule out the possibility that global infection curves propagate secondary waves, shaped similar to seismic aftershocks until a vaccine is broadly available.”

Some more details from JPM on how and why “reducing new contacts” aka social distancing has been the primary containment strategy:

Most countries so far have taken the strategy of reducing the virus transmission rate in the community to slow the infection curve. We have proposed that COVID- 19 seems to have a higher basic reproduction number (Ro: 2) compared to the Spanish Flu (Ro: 1.5-1.8). Also, it could take 12-16 months for a vaccine to be under mass production. As a result, the spread of COVID-19  could potentially paralyze the hospital system in a short period. Majority of countries have implemented strong social distancing measures including city lockdowns to reduce the pressure on hospital capacities. This way, new contact with potential infection pool could be reduced which would lead to smaller new infection additions. Meanwhile, it allows time for governments to build up healthcare capacities such as intensive care units, which could then minimize the mortality risks.

So far so good, and social distancing does indeed show success. But, as JPM asks, the question is if authorities will face challenges in acceptance to extend strict social-distancing for longer periods (say over a month).

Therefore, the bank’s analyst cannot rule out the possibility that successive global infection curves form until a vaccine is broadly available. The strategy then may shift to society living with COVID-19, but minimizing infection scale/scope.

Which then brings us to the $64 trillion (roughly in line with global GDP) question: is the coming “second reinfection wave” going to be smaller or bigger, similar to the Spanish Flu pandemic, where deaths in the second wave were 5x greater than those from the first?

Deaths during 1918 spanish flu Pandemic

Deaths during 1918 spanish flu Pandemic

Here JPM believes that next waves could be at a smaller amplitude with lower mortality rate potential compared to the current first wave. This is due to (1) strong risk awareness among stakeholders; (2) faster government response potential at the infection tipping point; and (3) enhanced risk manual at the containment stage. However, even a substantially reduced amplitude of wave 2 (and 3 and 4), suggest that ongoing economic shutdowns will be recurring feature of life for quarters if not years!

Coronavirus-global infection rate

The amplitude could be higher, however, a la the Spanish Flu pandemic, if it turns out that the life cycle of the coronavirus is far longer than assumed.  As JPM notes, the COVID-19 infection life cycle could last for 4-5 weeks including a 2-week incubation period.

The bottom line, and somewhat counterintuitively, the sooner the world declares victory against the Wu Flu, the faster the general population will rush back into “social undistancing”, sparking countless new case clusters as the infection restarts from scratch, forcing authorities to re-establish social distancing once again, and so on, as the entire process repeats from square one.

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How Long Will the American Covid-19 Lockdown Last? Here’s What the Patterns Suggest

March 29, 2020 by Daisy Luther https://www.theorganicprepper.com/how-long-covid-19-patterns/

(March 29, 2020) From the moment lockdowns and serious social distancing efforts began in the United States, the question on everyone’s mind was, “How long will these lockdowns last?”

And it’s not simple impatience. The cost of Covid-19 continues to come as a brutal assault to families across the country. First, there was the money spent preparing for the likelihood of quarantine, and this was followed, for many, by a loss of income. A shocking 3.3 million people had filed for unemployment by last Thursday, something projected less than a week ago and laughed off by many as fear-mongering. The economic ramifications of this virus are not just short-term – they’re long-term too.

It’s psychological, too. Right now, we’re in this strange period of purgatory in which the situation isn’t that bad for a lot of people – outside of a few hotspots, we aren’t seeing the virus in our own backyards. But the inability to plan for something next summer, next month – even next week – is tough on people who are accustomed to being able to map out things like vacations, summer activities for the kids, heck, even a night at the movies with our partners. There’s a sense of overall discomfort which can only be described as grief as we miss out on goals, milestones, and the day to day lives we enjoyed just a couple of short weeks ago.

We want this to end. Now.

And if we can’t have that, we want to know when. When will this limbo known as lockdown be over?

Unfortunately, we’re just getting started.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about when the lockdowns and shelter in place orders would be handed down in the United States, based on the patterns we were seeing in China and in Italy. It turned out to be extremely accurate, so we can use the same general idea of using patterns to attempt to predict what happens next.

Now, keep in mind, there are all sorts of variables. I hate making “predictions because of this. These aren’t “predictions” in a crystal ball kind of way. This is just an analysis of what has already happened and how a pattern is developing. So, my disclaimer is, given the vast array of variables, some of which we’ve probably never even considered, these dates may be entirely wrong. But right now, patterns are all we have to give us an idea of what to expect.

Some of the variables that could come into play are the severity of the lockdown, the population density of the infection hotspots, a surge of civil unrest, a concurrent disaster, and/or the medical systems in the different countries involved. China is a lot more authoritarian than the US and Italy, and they incorporated shocking measures like literally welding people into their apartments.

While things started off rather gently in Italy and the United States, don’t expect it to stay that way.

Italy started off less strictly but has increasingly become tougher on citizens as the cases explode, and we’re seeing harsher measures being instituted across the United States as governors take steps to protect their less-infected states from those fleeing hotspots.

Expect this to continue up to and including martial law if people don’t cooperate with social distancing measures. I’m not saying that this is a good thing or a bad thing – I’m just pointing out that this is reality. If you don’t believe it, read this article about how the cops in Rhode Island are teaming up with the National Guard to go door to door looking for New Yorkers who have fled the city. Right here in the United States of America, boys and girls.

Don’t delude yourself into thinking we’re protected by the Constitution right now. While that should always be the case, know that right now, we’re not.

Some definitions

For the purposes of this article, here are some definitions that I’m using.

  • Lockdown: Periods of time with the restriction of movement, closure of businesses, quarantines, and curfews mandated by federal or local governments with varying degrees of enforcement,
  • Peak: The plateau in which the number of cases was high somewhat uniformly. Also known as “flattening the curve.”
  • Spike:  A brief period during which the number of cases skyrocketed, then returned to the peak.
  • Decline: The period of time when the number of new cases began to drop steadily from the peak period.

The charts below are all from Worldometer and show the new cases diagnosed in each country.

I’m not a scientist, a statistician, or a doctor. These are my definitions that I’ll be using throughout the article and I’m sharing them for the purpose of clarity so that we’re all reading from the same songbook.

Here’s how it went down in China.

Keep in mind that I never trusted and still do not trust the numbers coming from China. I’m not basing any of this on their numbers, but on their increases and decreases. If it helps any, I don’t trust the American numbers either. I’m equal opportunity in my distrust.

All we’re looking at here are patterns.

The lockdown of China began on Jan. 22. Within a few days, the lockdown had spread to incorporate millions and millions of people and were quite widespread to some degree or another.

This is Worldometer’s chart for China. The chart begins on Jan. 22, which is not accurate – that was the day that they locked down Wuhan so we know there were a number of cases before that date. But this is the data we have to work with. Again, we’re not focused on the numbers, but on the pattern.

Worldometer’s chart for China

China’s cases hit the plateau that we’re calling a “peak” approximately Jan. 30th. That’s when they hit a plateau that was continued after the peak until cases began to drop off on Feb. 19th. During this time, the cases were being diagnosed hard and fast at a high rate that varied from day to day but stayed in a certain range. This means the peak for China began 8 days after widespread lockdown and lasted for 20 days.

You can see a spike on Feb. 13th and 14th. This can be explained away –  at least in part. China began using a different diagnostic method on the 13th that didn’t require the antigen test. It was faster and easier to diagnose patients at that time. There were 15 thousand new cases that day and this is notable. This spike occurred 22 days after the lockdown began. They only used this diagnostic method for 2 days, then returned to their previous methods of diagnosis. At that time, numbers returned generally to the plateau that we’re calling the peak.

Cases began to decline 21 days after the peak began, on Feb. 19th.

65 days after the lockdown began, Wuhan relaxed to the lockdown: people can leave their homes but are not allowed to leave the city. If all goes well, China plans to reopen Wuhan on April 8th which is 77 days after they first locked down Wuhan.

We’ll learn a lot about our own future when we see how it goes in Wuhan a couple of weeks from now.

Here’s the deal with Italy.

Italy began its regional lockdown on Feb. 21st and it quickly expanded to a widespread national lockdown by March  9th. (source for dates) As I write this, Italy is at day 20 of its lockdown

In the chart below, it appears that Italy began its peak around March 18th, which is 9 days after widespread lockdowns began.

Worldometer’s chart for Italy

If the same pattern as China holds true, infections will decline but still be in peak until April 20th.

Italy could begin to relax its lockdown as of May 13th. If China does indeed completely lift its lockdown on Day 77 and this works well, then the end of Italy’s lockdown could be June 6th.

Again, there are many variables. For example, on March 28th in Italy (yesterday at the time of writing), tensions arose in Italy as the health emergency became a social emergency. People broke the shelter in place orders, threatening to storm supermarkets because they’ve run out of food. Cries for revolution arose throughout social media and many people have said they will not remain at home, and that they’re out of food and basic necessities.

This could, unfortunately, result in a much longer period of infection as people gather in crowds to protest. It could even result in a spike for Italy around March 31-April 1 that would be similar to China’s spike, albeit for a different reason.

What about the US?

First things first – this is not going to be over in two weeks. If the country reopened again next week or the week after while cases are still climbing, everything we’ve done from this point on will have been in vain. We’re in this social distancing business for quite a while if we want it to work.

Our first major lockdowns began on March 19th. Thirty-three states have closed down non-essential businesses or mandated some type of lockdown since that time.

If we base our timing on the pattern of China, the peak would have begun yesterday, March 28th. We should begin to see the curve flattening out on charts within the next few days.

Worldometer’s chart for US

This peak would last through about April 30th and we could see our worst days on April 10th and 11th, depending on whether we have some kind of unusual variables like both China and Italy have had.

On May 23rd, we could see the lockdowns become more relaxed, and if they go 77 days like Wuhan, then the lockdowns would end on June 6th.

It’s important to note that we still don’t know what the aftermath of the lockdown looks like in China. It could end up that they’ll put another lockdown in place if infections begin to reoccur at a high rate. Personally, I don’t plan to rush out to a crowded mall the moment lockdowns are lifted. I want to wait and see what happens after a week or so first.

To provide an example, several hundred movie theaters in China outside the epicenter of the outbreak reopened on March 23rd, then were abruptly ordered to close on March 27th without further explanation.

The reopening of the United States could also be a start-and-stop process as scientists learn more about Covid-19.

This isn’t a short term event. It’s going to get worse.

I’m not the only person who thinks these measures could last for quite some time. According to Michael Snyder, it will be ongoing and we too could expect to see some civil unrest before this is over.

Of course many Americans are already losing patience and are quite eager to get back to work.

If the “shelter-in-place” orders stretch on for months, it is probably inevitable that we will see civil unrest and rioting like we are witnessing in China right now.

Unfortunately, it appears that vast sections of the country will remain shut down for the foreseeable future. (source)

As in China, there are parts of the country that are far less affected than places like New York City and New Orleans. But every single state has diagnosed Covid within its boundaries and none of the country is unscathed by the measures being undertaken to combat the spread.

And despite the steps that Americans have taken to slow this down, we have the unfortunate distinction of surpassing China as the epicenter of the pandemic. On Thursday, March 26th, 17,224 new cases were diagnosed here and on Friday, there were 19,452 new cases.

Unfortunately, the number of new cases is still climbing. We have not seen the worst of this situation yet. People should be prepared for anything from more stringent lockdowns, supply chain interruptions, and potentially even civil unrest in some areas as the situation drags on.

I know these dates and numbers are probably not what you want to hear. It’s only been ten days and for many, it’s practically unimaginable to live like this for 2 more months, stretching into June. The effect on the economy alone is mindblowing, not to mention the feelings of uncertainty, unrest, and even fear that many people are experiencing.

But if you’re anything like me, you’d rather go into this unknown territory facing reality instead of waiting and wondering.

About Daisy

Daisy Luther writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company. You can find her on FacebookPinterest, and Twitter.

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Just like in China Thousands Of COVID-19 Deaths Have Gone Uncounted In The US

Shocking Expose Proves Thousands Of COVID-19 Deaths Have Gone Uncounted In The US: Live Updates

by Tyler Durden 05April2020 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-york-reports-promising-first-drop-covid-19-deaths-hell-week-begins-live-updates
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Bodies are buried in a trench on Hart Island, April 8, 2020, in the Bronx borough of New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Bodies are buried in a trench on Hart Island, Wednesday, April 8, 2020, in the Bronx borough of New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Update (1445ET): Two reporters from the New York Times purport to have found evidence that health officials, often at the local or county level, are dramatically undercounting coronavirus deaths in the US. Citing information and documents provided by “doctors, hospital officials, public health experts and medical examiners,” among others, the reporters claim that potentially thousands of deaths have gone uncounted, meaning the total is probably closer to 20k – or beyond – than the roughly 10k (9,180, per JHU) reported so far.

Unfortunately, since the patients have died, there will be few – if any – opportunities for these discrepancies to be rectified, if coronavirus isn’t listed as a cause of death, something that requires a positive test.

Given the shortage of tests around the US, living patients have typically been prioritized over the deceased, even as counting posthumous deaths is important in helping officials get the accurate data they need to fight the virus.

A lot of the most compelling anecdotes in the report came from coroners, and from families like this one, per the NYT:

As the coronavirus outbreak began sweeping across the country last month, Julio Ramirez, a 43-year-old salesman in San Gabriel, Calif., came home from a business trip and began feeling unwell, suffering from a fever, cough and body aches. By the next day, he had lost his sense of taste and smell.

His wife, Julie Murillo, took him to an urgent care clinic several days later, where he was so weak he had to be pushed in a wheelchair. Doctors prescribed antibiotics, a cough syrup and gave him a chest X-ray, but they did not test for the coronavirus, she said. Just over a week after he returned from his trip and not long after President Trump declared a national emergency over the outbreak, Ms. Murillo found him dead in his bed.

“I kept trying to get him tested from the beginning,” Ms. Murillo said in an interview. “They told me no.”
Frustrated, Ms. Murillo enlisted friends to call the C.D.C. on her behalf, asking for her husband to be tested for the coronavirus post-mortem. Then she hired a private company to conduct an autopsy; the owner pleaded for a coronavirus test from local and federal authorities.

On Saturday afternoon, Ms. Murillo received a call from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, she said. The health department had gone to the funeral home where her husband’s body was resting and taken a sample for a coronavirus test. He tested positive.

A spokesman for the health department did not respond to questions about Mr. Ramirez, and it was not clear whether any systematic post-mortem testing was being conducted beyond his case.

Even Johns Hopkins University agreed that deaths are almost certainly being undercounted: “We definitely think there are deaths that we have not accounted for,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. JHU has been tracking the virus from the beginning, maintaining an online database that has become one of the most trusted and widely-cited sources of data on deaths and cases by the press around the world.

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Supplies Are Starting To Get Really Tight Nationwide As Food Distribution Systems Break Down

by Tyler Durden 31March2020 https://www.zerohedge.com/health/supplies-are-starting-get-really-tight-nationwide-food-distribution-systems-break-down

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

All across America, store shelves are emptying and people are becoming increasingly frustrated because they can’t get their hands on needed supplies.

Most Americans are blaming “hoarders” for the current mess, but it is actually much more complicated than that.  Normally, Americans get a lot of their food from restaurants.  In fact, during normal times 36 percent of all Americans eat at a fast food restaurant on any given day.  But now that approximately 75 percent of the U.S. is under some sort of a “shelter-in-place” order and most of our restaurants have shut down, things have completely changed.  Suddenly our grocery stores are being flooded with unexpected traffic, and many people are buying far more than usual in anticipation of a long pandemic.  Unfortunately, our food distribution systems were not designed to handle this sort of a surge, and things are really starting to get crazy out there.

 

I would like to share with you an excerpt from an email that I was sent recently.  It describes the chaos that grocery stores in Utah and Idaho have been experiencing…

When this virus became a problem that we as a nation could see as an imminent threat, Utah, because of its culture of food storage and preparing for disaster events seemed to “get the memo” first. The week of March 8th grocery sales more than doubled in Utah, up 218%. Many states stayed the same with increases in some. Idaho seemed to “get the memo” about four days later. We were out of water and TP four days after Utah. Then we were out of food staples about four days later. Next was produce following a pattern set by Utah four days earlier.

The problem for us in Idaho was this. The stores in Utah were emptied out then refilled twice by the warehouses before it hit Idaho. Many of these Utah stores have trucks delivering daily. So when it did hit Idaho the warehouses had been severely taxed. We had a hard time filling our store back up even one time. We missed three scheduled trucks that week alone. Then orders finally came they were first 50% of the order and have dropped to 20%. In normal circumstances we receive 98% of our orders and no canceled trucks. Now three weeks later, the warehouses in the Western United States have all been taxed. In turn, those warehouses have been taxing the food manufacturers. These food companies have emptied their facilities to fill the warehouses of the Western United States. The East Coast hasn’t seemed to “get the memo” yet. When they do what food will be left to fill their warehouses and grocery stores?

Food distribution and resources for the Eastern United States will be at great peril even if no hoarding there takes place. But of course it will.

Additionally the food culture of the East Coast and other urban areas is such that people keep very little food on hand. They often shop several times weekly for items if they cook at home. They don’t have big freezers full of meat, home canned vegetables in their storage rooms, gardens, or beans, wheat, and rice in buckets in the their basements.

With most of the country locked down, normal economic activity has come to a standstill, and it is going to become increasingly difficult for our warehouses to meet the demand that grocery stores are putting on them.

Meanwhile, our farmers are facing severe problems of their own.  The following comes from CNBC

The U.S.-China trade war sent scores of farmers out of business. Record flooding inundated farmland and destroyed harvests. And a blistering heat wave stunted crop growth in the Midwest.

Now, the coronavirus pandemic has dealt another blow to a vulnerable farm economy, sending crop and livestock prices tumbling and raising concerns about sudden labor shortages.

The chaos in the financial markets is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and it is going to remain difficult for farm laborers to move around as long as “shelter-in-place” orders remain in effect on the state level.

Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt told reporter Emma Newburger that “we’ve stopped saying it can’t get worse”, and he says that this coronavirus pandemic looks like it could be “the straw that broke the camel’s back”

“We were already under extreme financial pressure. With the virus sending the prices down — it’s getting to be the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt.

“We were hoping for something good this year, but this virus has stopped all our markets,” he said.

Of course this comes at a time when millions of Americans are losing their jobs and unemployment is shooting up to unthinkable levels.  Without any money coming in, many people are already turning to alternative sources of help in order to feed themselves and their families.

On Monday, hundreds of cars were lined up to get food from a food bank in Duquesne, Pennsylvania.  To many, this was eerily reminiscent of the “bread lines” during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Andrew Rush tweet 30March2020 Hundreds of cars wait to receive food from the Greater Community Food Bank in Duquesne. Collection begins at noon. @PghFoodBank @PittsburghPG

And it is also being reported that the number of people coming for free meals on Skid Row in Los Angeles has tripled since that city was locked down.

Sadly, these examples are likely only the tip of the iceberg of what we will see in the months ahead.

And it won’t just be the U.S. that is hurting.  The following comes from a Guardian article entitled “Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns”

Kazakhstan, for instance, according to a report from Bloomberg, has banned exports of wheat flour, of which it is one of the world’s biggest sources, as well as restrictions on buckwheat and vegetables including onions, carrots and potatoes. Vietnam, the world’s third biggest rice exporter, has temporarily suspended rice export contracts. Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, may also threaten to restrict exports, as it has done before, and the position of the US is in doubt given Donald Trump’s eagerness for a trade war in other commodities.

If this pandemic stretches on for an extended period of time, food supplies are inevitably going to get even tighter.

So what can you do?

Well, perhaps you can start a garden this year if you don’t normally grow one.  Apparently this pandemic has sparked a tremendous amount of interest in gardening programs around the country…

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, more people are showing an interest in starting home gardens. Oregon State University‘s (OSU) Master Gardener program took notice of the growing interest.

To help citizens who want to grow their own food, the university kindly made their online vegetable gardening course free until the end of April. OSU’s post on Facebook has been shared over 21,000 times.

Food is only going to get more expensive from here on out, and growing your own food is a way to become more independent of the system.

But if you don’t have any seeds right now, you may want to hurry, because consumer demand is spiking

“It’s the largest volume of orders we have seen,” said Jere Gettle of Baker Creek Heirloom Seeds in Mansfield, Missouri. Peak seed-buying season for home gardeners is January to March, but the normal end-of-season decline in orders isn’t happening.

Customers are gravitating to vegetables high in nutrients, such as kale, spinach and other quick-to-grow leafy greens. “Spinach is off the charts,” said Jo-Anne van den Berg-Ohms of Kitchen Garden Seeds in Bantam, Connecticut.

For years, I have been warning people to get prepared for “the perfect storm” that was coming, but of course most people didn’t listen.

But now it is upon us.

Desperate people have been running out to the grocery stores to stock up on toilet paper only to find that they are limited to one or two packages if it is even available.

And now that “panic buying” of seeds has begun, it is probably only a matter of time before many stores start running out.

We have reached a major turning point in our history, and things are only going to get crazier.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of Americans still have absolutely no idea what is ahead of us…

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Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients

Worry that ‘all hands’ responses may expose doctors and nurses to infection prompts debate about prioritizing the survival of the many over the one

By Ariana Eunjung Cha 26March2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/

JerusalemCats Comments: This is Disaster or Battlefield Triage

This triage system involves a color-coding scheme using red, yellow, green, white, and black tags:

  • Red tags – (immediate) are used to label those who cannot survive without immediate treatment but who have a chance of survival.
  • Yellow tags – (observation) for those who require observation (and possible later re-triage). Their condition is stable for the moment and, they are not in immediate danger of death. These victims will still need hospital care and would be treated immediately under normal circumstances.
  • Green tags – (wait) are reserved for the “walking wounded” who will need medical care at some point, after more critical injuries have been treated.
  • White tags – (dismiss) are given to those with minor injuries for whom a doctor’s care is not required.
  • Black tags – (expectant) are used for the deceased and for those whose injuries are so extensive that they will not be able to survive given the care that is available.

 

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.

Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one.

Richard Wunderink, one of Northwestern’s intensive-care medical directors, said hospital administrators would have to ask Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for help in clarifying state law and whether it permits the policy shift.

“It’s a major concern for everyone,” he said. “This is something about which we have had lots of communication with families, and I think they are very aware of the grave circumstances.”

Officials at George Washington University Hospital in the District say they have had similar conversations, but for now will continue to resuscitate covid-19 patients using modified procedures, such as putting plastic sheeting over the patient to create a barrier. The University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, one of the country’s major hot spots for infections, is dealing with the problem by severely limiting the number of responders to a contagious patient in cardiac or respiratory arrest.

Several large hospital systems — Atrium Health in the Carolinas, Geisinger in Pennsylvania and regional Kaiser Permanente networks — are looking at guidelines that would allow doctors to override the wishes of the coronavirus patient or family members on a case-by-case basis due to the risk to doctors and nurses, or a shortage of protective equipment, say ethicists and doctors involved in those conversations. But they would stop short of imposing a do-not-resuscitate order on every coronavirus patient. The companies declined to comment.

Lewis Kaplan, president of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and a University of Pennsylvania surgeon, described how colleagues at different institutions are sharing draft policies to address their changed reality.

“We are now on crisis footing,” he said. “What you take as first-come, first-served, no-holds-barred, everything-that-is-available-should-be-applied medicine is not where we are. We are now facing some difficult choices in how we apply medical resources — including staff.”

The new protocols are part of a larger rationing of lifesaving procedures and equipment — including ventilators — that is quickly becoming a reality here as in other parts of the world battling the virus. The concerns are not just about health-care workers getting sick but also about them potentially carrying the virus to other patients in the hospital.

R. Alta Charo, a University of Wisconsin-Madison bioethicist, said that while the idea of withholding treatments may be unsettling, especially in a country as wealthy as ours, it is pragmatic. “It doesn’t help anybody if our doctors and nurses are felled by this virus and not able to care for us,” she said. “The code process is one that puts them at an enhanced risk.”

Wunderink said all of the most critically ill patients in the 12 days since they had their first coronavirus case have experienced steady declines rather than a sudden crash. That allowed medical staff to talk with families about the risk to workers and how having to put on protective gear delays a response and decreases the chance of saving someone’s life.

A consequence of those conversations, he said, is that many family members are making the difficult choice to sign do-not-resuscitate orders.

Code blue

Health-care providers are bound by oath — and in some states, by law — to do everything they can within the bounds of modern technology to save a patient’s life, absent an order, such as a DNR, to do otherwise. But as cases mount amid a national shortage of personal protective equipment, or PPE, hospitals are beginning to implement emergency measures that will either minimize, modify or completely stop the use of certain procedures on patients with covid-19.

Some of the most anxiety-provoking minutes in a health-care worker’s day involve participating in procedures that send virus-laced droplets from a patient’s airways all over the room.

These include endoscopies, bronchoscopies and other procedures in which tubes or cameras are sent down the throat and are routine in ICUs to look for bleeds or examine the inside of the lungs.

Changing or eliminating those protocols is likely to decrease some patients’ chances for survival. But hospital administrators and doctors say the measures are necessary to save the most lives.

The most extreme of these situations is when a patient, in hospital lingo, “codes.”

When a code blue alarm is activated, it signals that a patient has gone into cardiopulmonary arrest and typically all available personnel — usually somewhere around eight but sometimes as many as 30 people — rush into the room to begin live-saving procedures without which the person would almost certainly perish.

“It’s extremely dangerous in terms of infection risk because it involves multiple bodily fluids,” explained one ICU physician in the Midwest, who did not want her name used because she was not authorized to speak by her hospital.

Fred Wyese, an ICU nurse in Muskegon, Mich., describes it like a storm:

A team of nurses and doctors, trading off every two minutes, begin the chest compressions that are part of cardiopulmonary resuscitation or CPR. Someone punctures the neck and arms to access blood vessels to put in new intravenous lines. Someone else grabs a “crash cart” stocked with a variety of lifesaving medications and equipment ranging from epinephrine injectors to a defibrillator to restart the heart.

As soon as possible, a breathing tube will be placed down the throat and the person will be hooked up to a mechanical ventilator. Even in the best of times, a patient who is coding presents an ethical maze; there’s often no clear cut answer for when there’s still hope and when it’s too late.

In the process, heaps of protective equipment is used — often many dozens of gloves, gowns, masks, and more.

Bruno Petinaux, chief medical officer at George Washington University Hospital, said the hospital has had a lot of discussion about how — and whether — to resuscitate covid-19 patients who are coding.

“From a safety perspective you can make the argument that the safest thing is to do nothing,” he said. “I don’t believe that is necessarily the right approach. So we have decided not to go in that direction. What we are doing is what can be done safely.”

However, he said, the decision comes down to a hospital’s resources and “every hospital has to assess and evaluate for themselves.” It’s still early in the outbreak in the Washington area, and GW still has sufficient equipment and manpower. Petinaux said he cannot rule out a change in protocol if things get worse.

GW’s procedure for responding to coronavirus patients who are coding includes using a machine called a Lucas device, which looks like a bumper, to deliver chest compressions. But the hospital has only two. If the Lucas devices are not readily accessible, doctors and nurses have been told to drape plastic sheeting — the 7-mil kind available at Home Depot or Lowe’s — over the patient’s body to minimize the spread of droplets and then proceed with chest compressions. Because the patient would presumably be on a ventilator, there is no risk of suffocation.

In Washington state which had the nation’s first covid-19 cases, UW Medicine’s chief medical officer, Tim Dellit, said the decision to send in fewer doctors and nurses to help a coding patient is about “minimizing use of PPE as we go into the surge.” He said the hospital is monitoring health-care workers’ health closely. So far, the percentage of infections among those tested is less than in the general population, which, he hopes, means their precautions are working.

‘It is a nightmare’

Bioethicist Scott Halpern at the University of Pennsylvania is the author of one widely circulated model guideline being considered by many hospitals. In an interview, he said a blanket stop to resuscitations for infected patients is too “draconian” and may end up sacrificing a young person who is otherwise in good health. However, health-care workers and limited protective equipment cannot be ignored.

“If we risk their well-being in service of one patient, we detract from the care of future patients, which is unfair,” he said.

Halpern’s document calls for two physicians, the one directly taking care of a patient and one who is not, to sign off on do-not-resuscitate orders. They must document the reason for the decision, and the family must be informed but does not have to agree.

Wyese, the Michigan ICU nurse, said his own hospital has been thinking about these issues for years but still is unprepared.
“They made us do all kinds of mandatory education and fittings and made it sound like they are prepared,” he said. “But when it hits the fan, they don’t have the supplies so the plans they had in place aren’t working.”

Over the weekend, Wyese said, a suspected covid-19 patient was rushed in and put into a negative pressure room to prevent the virus spread. In normal times, a nurse in full hazmat-type gear would sit with the patient to care for him, but there was little equipment to spare. So Wyese had to monitor him from the outside. Before he walked inside, he said, he would have to put on a face shield, N95 mask, and other equipment and slather antibacterial foam on his bald head as the hospital did not have any more head coverings. Only one powered air-purifying respirator or PAPR was available for the room and others nearby that could be used when performing an invasive procedure — but it was 150 feet away.

While he said his hospital’s policy still called for a full response to patients whose heart or breathing stopped, he worried any efforts would be challenging, if not futile.

“By the time you get all gowned up and double-gloved the patient is going to be dead,” he said. “We are going to be coding dead people. It is a nightmare.”
Ben Guarino in New York and Desmond Butler contributed to this report.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/

“No Hope”: Canada’s Nursing Homes Prepare For Mass Death

by Tyler Durden05April2020 – https://www.zerohedge.com/health/no-hope-canadas-nursing-homes-prepare-mass-death

Nursing homes in Canada have been instructed by health officials to ‘keep seniors comfortable’ if they contract COVID-19 and not take them to the hospital due to their high mortality rate, according to Canada’s Global News.

 

They’re treating it like a hospice, like there’s no hope like they have stage four brain cancer and they just have to keep them comfortable because there’s nothing they can do,” said Tanya Bartley, whose grandmother died last month at Pinecrest Nursing Home in Bobcaygeon, Ontario – where 22 residents have died and 1/3 of the staff are in isolation due to coronavirus.

Community shaken by COVID-19 deaths at Pinecrest Nursing Home

CBC News: The National 31March2020

“They don’t play god. Everybody is the same. I don’t care if it’s a two-year-old, a 10-year-old, a 20-year-old, middle-aged, elderly. I don’t care,” Bartley added.

One dementia-stricken resident, Edna Bowers, was one such coronavirus victim who was treated at the home and not transferred to the hospital.

In a March 23 letter seen by Global News, Dr. Allan Bell – medical director and chief of emergency medicine at Quinte Health Care (QHC) in Belleville, Ontario, outlines suggestions on how long-term care administrators should prepare for potential COVID-19 outbreaks in their facilities.

“Having this conversation pre-emptively is very important. It gives families time to digest the information when they are not in a crisis situation and, should an outbreak happen, it is difficult to manage all of the conversations at once,” reads the letter in part, while also recommending against hospital visits – citing a shortage of medical options for frail patients.

Our critical care colleagues are of the strong opinion that ventilator treatment will not make a survival difference to patients who are frail and ventilator support is very unlikely to be offered,” the letter continues “for those residents who go on to develop respiratory failure, care needs to focus on the provision of comfort to ease suffering at the end of life.”

When reached by Global News for comment, Ontario’s Health Minister Christine Elliott said she was unaware of the guidelines – adding that nobody would be denied care in an ER.

“If people are ill enough that they have to go to hospital of course they will be transported to hospital. If they’re showing symptoms of COVID-19, they’ve been diagnosed with it but they can be maintained in self-isolation within the home; we’ll do that too but no one is going to be denied health care if they need it,” she said.

Elliott says no patient has been “blocked” from hospitals, adding: “If they need to be taken there they will be taken there.

It’s unclear where the directive came from, as several complainants came forward to Global News with similar experiences.

One family in southwestern Ontario says their loved one was asked to sign a waiver agreeing to remain at the long-term care home she resides at in the event of an outbreak. –Global News

According to health officials, residents of long-term care homes are being screened twice daily and are subject to more intense screening in order to try and limit the spread of the virus.

New England Journal Paper, Death rates in care homes

Dr. John Campbell 31March2020
Click to download PDF file Click to Download the paper Epidemiology of Covid-19 in a Long-Term Care Facility in King County, Washington
NEJM 27 (March 2020)
Epidemiology of Covid-19 in a Long-Term Care Facility in King County, Washington
BACKGROUND
Risks, age, comorbidities, health care workers
METHODS
CDC, contact tracing, quarantine, isolation of confirmed and suspected cases, enhancement of infection control.
RESULTS
167 confirmed cases of Covid-19, 101 residents, 50 health care personnel, 16 visitors
7 residents asymptomatic
Hospitalization rates;
For residents = 54.5% with a CFR = 34% (34 of 101)
For staff = 50.0%
For visitors = 6.0%

As of March 18th, 30 care facilities with at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 had been identified in King County.

CONCLUSIONS
Proactive steps
Exclude potentially infected staff and visitors
Actively monitor for potentially infected patients
Implement infection control measures

INDEX CASE
19 Feb became symptomatic
She had no known travel or contact with persons known to have Covid-19

Computed tomographic (CT), diffuse bilateral pulmonary infiltrates.

PMH, insulin-dependent type II diabetes mellitus, obesity, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure.

Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs and a sputum specimen to test for SARS-CoV-2 28 feb, positive result

2 march, patient died on March 2, 2020.
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https://www.naturalnews.com

Bombshell plea from NYC ICU doctor: COVID-19 is a condition of oxygen deprivation, not pneumonia… VENTILATORS may be causing the lung damage, not the virus

04April2020 by: Mike Adams https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-04-nyc-icu-doctor-covid-19-oxygen-deprivation-not-pneumonia-ventilators.html

(Natural News) A NYC physician named Cameron Kyle-Sidell has posted two videos on YouTube, pleading for health practitioners to recognize that COVID-19 is not a pneumonia-like disease at all. It’s an oxygen deprivation condition, and the use of ventilators may be doing more harm than good with some patients. The ventilators themselves, due to the high-pressure methods they are running, may be damaging the lungs and leading to widespread harm of patients.

Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell describes himself as an “ER and critical care doctor” for NYC. “In these nine days I have seen things I have never seen before,” he says. Before publishing his video, we confirmed that Dr. Kyle-Sidell is an emergency medicine physician in Brooklyn and is affiliated with the Maimonides Medical Center located in Brooklyn.

In his video (see below), he goes on to warn the world that the entire approach to treating COVID-19 may be incorrect, and that the disease is something completely different from what the dogmatic medical establishment is claiming.

“In treating these patients, I have witnessed medical phenomena that just don’t make sense in the context of treating a disease that is supposed to be a viral pneumonia,” he explains.

He talks about how he opened a critical care using expecting to be treating patients with a viral pneumonia infection that would progress into Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). But that the disease acted nothing like ARDS. “This is the paradigm that every hospital in the country is working under,” he warns. “And yet, everything I’ve seen in the last nine days, all the things that just don’t make sense, the patients I’m seeing in front of me, the lungs I’m trying to improve, have led me to believe that COVID-19 is not this disease, and that we are operating under a medical paradigm that is untrue.”

More from Dr. Kyle-Sidell: (emphasis added)

In short, I believe we are treating the wrong disease, and I fear that this misguided treatment will lead to a tremendous amount of harm to a great number of people in a very short time… I feel compelled to give this information out.

COVID-19 lung disease, as far as I can see, is not a pneumonia and should not be treated as one. Rather, it appears as if some kind of viral-induced disease most resembling high altitude sickness. Is it as if tens of thousands of my fellow New Yorkers are on a plane at 30,000 feet at the cabin pressure is slowly being let out. These patients are slowly being starved of oxygen.

And while [patients] absolutely look like patients on the brink of death, they do not look like patients dying from pneumonia… I suspect that the patients I’m seeing in front of me, look as if a person was dropped off on the top of Mt. Everest without time to acclimate.

He goes on to explain that ventilators, in some cases, may be doing far more harm than good.

When we treat people with ARDS, we typically use ventilators to treat respiratory failure. But these patients’ muscles work fine. I fear that if we are using a false paradigm to treat a new disease, then the method that we program [into] the ventilator, one based on respiratory failure as opposed to oxygen failure, that this method being widely adopted … aims to increase pressure on the lungs in order to open them up, is actually doing more harm than good, and that the pressure we are providing to lungs, we may be providing to lungs that cannot take it. And that the ARDS that we are seeing, may be nothing more than lung injury caused by the ventilator.

There are hundreds of thousands of lungs in this country at risk.

In other words, the real disease appears to cause oxygen deprivation in victims, not pneumonia. This is critically important for all the obvious reasons, and it raises huge questions about the origins of the coronavirus and whether there is some additional external factor beyond the virus that may be causing a combined effect that results in severe oxygen deprivation.

FROM NYC ICU: DOES COVID-19 REALLY CAUSE ARDS??!!

Cameron Kyle-Sidell 31March2020
I am a physician who has been working at the bedside of COVID+ patients in NYC. I believe we are treating the wrong disease and that we must change what we are doing if we want to save as many lives as possible. I welcome any feedback, especially from those bedside: doctors, nurses, xray techs, pharmacists, anyone and everyone. Does this sound wrong or right, is something more right? Please let me know. @cameronks

Comments: Adriane C 04April2020
TY-I posted this on my FB and am sharing with all the pulmonologists I know. You are spot on. Many of us nurses have had similar questions. Why is Vent to death rate nearly 2x faster with this than pneumonia? This is what I posted on my FB w your video. Please please keep talking – everyone please keep talking and being public. Doctors and nurses are the ones who will raise public awareness and create change and save lives. Nobody else. Seriously we are on our own. Our union nurses have been making the news daily. We need to continue to take over Social media and the news and use the public trust to advance care of our patients and protection for us (need PPE) and our families.

This is NOT pneumonia. I 100% agree with him. There’s no other answer to the poor response and rapid decline with “traditional” treatment regimens. Please get this video out to all providers-especially ICU-Critical Care Providers-Pulmonologists- Infection Disease doctors. There has to be a different paradigm. Steroid use must be questioned. Suppression of febrile state must be questioned? Why not allow the immune response to run its course up to 40C? Pay attention to ACE2 receptor and microbiology of it’s actions and role. Check out Med Cram or John Campbell on Youtube as well. They speak to the same questions. We are all learning and this is something totally new.”

Watch this second video where he begs the world to recognize that the ventilator protocols are not working and must be changed.

From this second video:

We don’t know where we’re going. We are putting breathing tubes in people and putting them on ventilators and dialing up the pressure to open their lungs. I’ve talked to doctors all around the country and it is becoming increasingly clear that the pressure we are providing may be hurting their lungs. That it is highly likely that the high pressures we are using are damaging the lungs of the patients we are putting breathing tubes in… we are running the ventilators in the wrong way…. COVID-19 patients need oxygen, they do not need pressure.

FROM NYC DOC: SHOULD COVID-19 VENTILATOR PROTOCALS BE CHANGED!!!

Cameron Kyle-Sidell 01April2020
Patients need OXYGEN NOT PRESSURE!!! The ventilators may be causing lung damage because of PRESSURE. Needs to be immediately investigated. 100,000 – 250,000 Americans at risk of lung injury. Change can happen. The time is NOW!! #oxygennotpressure #thetimeisnow

Hope this helps…… “our study shows that many patients did not re-open their lungs under high positive pressure and may be exposed to more harm than benefit in trying to increase the pressure,” said Chun Pan, MD, also a professor with Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University. “By contrast, the lung improves when the patient is in the prone position. “Considering this can be done, it is important for the management of patients with severe COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation.” https://medicaldialogues.in/critical-care/news/prone-position-improves-ventilation-in-severe-covid-19-patients-findswuhan-study-64202

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Nurses Are Beginning to Come Forward

Something Feels Wrong 4May2020
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https://www.naturalnews.com

Coronavirus hijacks immune cells to create cytokine storms, says new study

27May2020 by: https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-05-27-coronavirus-hijacks-immune-cells-to-create-cytokine-storms.html

(Natural News) Scientists continue to be baffled by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), especially how it “hijacks” certain cells of the body. A new study from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai suggests that SARS-CoV-2 – the coronavirus strain behind the current pandemic – can inhibit one virus-fighting set of genes but allow another set to launch – a pattern not seen with other viruses.

For Benjamin tenOever, a virus expert at Mount Sinai and the senior author of the study, this behavior is something he has not seen in his 20 years of studying viruses. Other viruses, like the flu virus and the original SARS virus, interfere with two sets of genes in the body’s immune response: The one that prevents viruses from replicating and the other that recruits immune cells to the infection site to kill viruses.

The first group of genes, which tenOever dubs “call to arms genes,” produces interferons, which are proteins that interfere with the virus’s ability to replicate. These proteins are important modulators of the immune response. Once interferons are released, they serve as a signal to nearby cells to activate their own genes. This slows down the virus’s ability to make copies of itself if it invades them. According to tenOever, this process lasts anywhere between seven to 10 days, which is plenty of time for the second group of genes to do their job.

The second group of genes produces chemokines, which are small proteins that emit a biochemical “come here!” alarm. TenOever calls these “call for reinforcement” genes, on account that other immune cells – like the antibody-making B cells and the virus-killing T cells – rush to chemokine sources once they sense the alarm.

“Most other viruses interfere with some aspect of both the call to arms and the call for reinforcements,” tenOever added. “If they didn’t, no one would ever get a viral illness.”

SARS-CoV-2, however, behaves differently. It prevents the first group of genes from producing interferons that can slow its replication but allows the second group of genes to secrete chemokines. This not only allows the virus to multiply unchecked, but it also causes immune cells to flood the lungs. The result is a storm of inflammatory molecules in the affected organ, which tenOever calls a unique and aberrant consequence of SARS-CoV-2.

When your immunity turns against you

TenOever and his team examined healthy lung cells growing in lab dishes, ferrets (which they called an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 infections) and lung cells from coronavirus patients. Within three days of infection, the team found a mild response from the “call to arms” genes that inhibit replication and a large introduction of the “call for reinforcement” genes.

“Basically people are contracting the disease, SARS-CoV-2 enters the lungs and it begins to replicate and, at that site of replication, those cells that are infected, they don’t do a good job of spreading the word about their infection which allows it to essentially fester in the lungs,” tenOever explained.

Without interferons, the virus is free to infect other cells and replicate much faster, all while cells in the area continue to call for reinforcements. But by the time the reinforcements arrive, the virus has grown out of control. The presence of large amounts of immune cells, on the other hand, triggers uncontrolled levels of inflammation, which does nothing but induce more inflammation.

This could explain why people with COVID-19 experience “cytokine storms” in which the body attacks its own cells and tissues instead of just the virus. (Related: Study: Vitamin D deficiency found to increase the risk of fatal coronavirus infections and a deadly “cytokine storm.”)

According to tenOever, their findings point to two methods of treatment. For patients who have just started developing symptoms, he says that therapy should focus on inducing the missing “call to arms” genes, so the virus can behave similarly to that of the flu. But for those with severe symptoms, he says that reducing inflammation and the risk of cytokine storms will be beneficial.

TenOever and his team’s findings were published last week in the journal Cell.

Pandemic.news has the latest on the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

Sources include:

StatNews.com

Cell.com

DailyMail.co.uk

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